Unfortunately we will never know how the 2019/20 League One season would have finished were it not for the Covid-19 pandemic. Posh can consider themselves very unfortunate to have finished seventh following the season’s early curtailment and the hotly contested and controversial decision to use unweighted points per game as the method for deciding the final places this season.
However, although Posh would have had an excellent chance of making at least the top six had the season reached its normal conclusion, there are a number of reasons why Posh will spend a seventh consecutive season in League One. Some of them are of their own making, some relate to sheer bad luck while sadly an unfit governing body and self-interest of competitors also played its part. Below are my top six reasons why Posh missed out on a top six finish.
Steve Evans’ Appointment
It may seem strange to start an article with why Posh missed out on a top six place in the 2019/2020 season with a managerial appointment which occurred in the summer of 2018 and only lasted until January 2019, but hear me out.
Steve Evans is not a bad manager. In fact, at League Two and One level he has proven himself to be a very successful manager. However, the decision to appoint him as manager of Peterborough United was a terrible one.
To understand why we need only look at the two managers who came before him and since, Grant McCann and Darren Ferguson. Those two managers play a broadly similar style of play utilising similar types of players. However, sandwiched between them, Evans is the polar opposite as a manager. His appointment, and desire to play a direct, counter attacking style of football meant that the vast majority of players he inherited were incompatible with his philosophy and that a complete rebuild of the squad was necessary. 19 players departed permanently in the summer of 2018 and 20 were signed (up to and including Bassong in October 2018). Posh lacked a long-term plan, and allowed their transfer plans to be dictated to them by a manager who lasted merely half a season.
Including loans, Posh have signed 38 different players since Evans joined the club in the summer of 2018. This has had two obvious and detrimental effects on the side which became glaringly apparent this season.
First, the complete overhaul and then re-overhaul of the squad in the last two summers has cost Posh 12 months of squad development. Rather than the squad evolving and improving year on year, twice the previous season’s plan has been ripped up with the club starting the new season from scratch. The decision makers at Posh must learn from this and ensure it is they, and not the manager, who dictate a long-term, consistent transfer policy and philosophy moving forwards.
Second, undue pressure was placed on the recruitment department to sign the bulk of a whole new squad in just one window last summer. While the recruitment this season has been generally impressive, between August and December Posh were desperately short of midfield options. The club missed out on a number of their midfield targets in the summer window and the side visibly struggled at times because of it, especially in terms of ball progression. Posh only needed one extra point come the end of the season to make the playoffs. Surely, had they had more depth and quality in midfield during the first half of the season they could have mustered one more point pre-January.
Key Games – Dropping Points When They Should Have Won
The fact that posh only need one extra point to make the playoffs, or even three for automatic promotion, means it is natural to look at some key games and moments in the season where Posh dropped points they perhaps shouldn’t have.
The most obvious game that we can look back on and wonder ‘what if’ is the 3-3 draw away to Wycombe. First Posh squandered a 2-0 half-time lead and found themselves pegged back to 2-2 after 63 minutes. Ivan Toney fired Posh back into the lead and an 83rd minute red card for Curtis Thompson should have settled the result. However, Adebayo Akinfenwa scored a 94th minute penalty to deny Posh three points and secure Wycombe what proved to be a crucial point. To make matters worse, the three goals Posh conceded that day were all easily preventable. Pym should have saved Akinfenwa’s header for the first, the second was an own goal from a sliced Kent clearance under no pressure with the third resulting from a harshly awarded penalty. In many ways though Posh really only had themselves to blame for twice squandering winning positions.
Away games at Tranmere Rovers and AFC Wimbledon also spring to mind. Posh were generally ruthless in dispatching the bottom sides in the league. From ten games against bottom six, it was only these two in which Posh dropped points. But what crucial dropped points they proved to be.
The 2-2 draw away to Tranmere came early in the season. Having gone 2-0 up, thanks to quick-fire goals from Toney and Eisa in the 54th and 56th minutes, Posh buckled in the final 30 minutes under the pressure applied by a resurgent Tranmere’s physical and direct play. Tranmere had gone through a difficult start to League One at the time, with their only win in their seven games to date coming against Bolton’s kids. At 2-0 the game should have been dead and buried, but Posh wilted and allowed Tranmere to dominate the last half an hour. The self-belief which should have evaporated starting oozing from the Tranmere players who sensed they could score an unlikely three points. In the end Tranmere were well worth at least a point, however, again Posh should only blame themselves for blowing such a dominant position and failing to find a way to see out a game against relatively poor opposition who came into the game on the back of a poor start to the season.
Finally, the 1-0 away defeat to AFC Wimbledon came at the end of a wretched run of form and performances for Posh. Not for the first time they dominated possession but struggled to create meaningful chances. Despite having 14 shots in the game, just two were on target. In truth, Posh probably did just enough to win the game, however it was not until the 58th minute when they went 1-0 down to a Joe Pigott goal that they started to look threatening and dominant against a very average Wimbledon side. This was also the last game which Posh muddled through in an unconvincing diamond shape. Had they changed formation for this game would they have got the point they needed to make the playoffs? Or maybe even the three required to come second? We’ll never know, but that does bring us neatly onto the next topic.
N.B. You can of course flip the argument and look at games Posh were fortunate to win e.g. 1-0 at home to Burton thanks to a Joe Ward wonder goal. However, only on two occasions did Posh win with a negative xG ratio. They however lost seven games where they accumulated a higher xG than their opponent.
The Diamond Wasn’t Forever - But It Certainly Lasted Too Long
Here it comes. The discussion of the dreaded diamond. Let’s start by saying Posh picked up some excellent results in the diamond, a three game run of wins: 4-0 away to MK Dons, 3-0 at home to Sunderland and 6-0 at home to Rochdale perhaps being the peak of the performances in that shape.
However, Posh often struggled to put in cohesive, team performances when playing in a diamond. They always looked in danger of being overrun in midfield, struggled against the switch of play, left their fullbacks dangerously exposed and lacked width in attack. It felt that the individual quality of players, especially in attack, was at times compensating for a less than optimal system. This feeling was enhanced by the fact that when they changed shape in games the performances often improved dramatically. A 2-0 home win against Lincoln was secured late on after switching to a 4-2-3-1 late on with the score still locked at 0-0 while the 2-1 away win to Gillingham came after switching early to a back 3 having been second best for the opening 20 or so minutes of the match.
It took a string of injuries and run of three very unconvincing performances in which Posh lost 4-3 away to Blackpool, 1-0 in a dire game away to Shrewsbury and scraped an unconvincing 1-0 win at home to Burton for Fergie to finally switch plan, first experimenting with a 3-4-1-2 the EFL Trophy loss to Ipswich before unleashing it in the league away to Portsmouth. However, the system only lasted four matches. Respectable draws and positive performances away to Portsmouth and a then in form Bristol Rovers came either side of a routine 1-0 home win over Bolton Wanderers. However, it was the next game which perhaps did the most damage to Posh’s promotion chances.
Posh lost 3-0 at home to bogey side Doncaster Rovers. The result convinced Fergie to revert back to his preferred diamond. However, Posh’s performance in that game was not anywhere near as bad as the result suggested. They won the xG count 1.06 v 0.46, had 18 shots to Doncaster’s seven and dominated possession with 62% of the ball. Two of Doncaster’s goals came from outside of the box while the other was converted near post from a corner, something of an Achilles heel for Posh at times this season.
The lopsided score line should not have masked what had been four fairly promising displays in a new shape. In general Posh looked more controlled in their build-up play, played with more width and progressed the ball through the lines more convincingly in a back three. They also looked more balanced and secure defensively. Indeed, Posh gave up an average of just 0.76 xGA per match during that run, which was well below their season average at that point.
However, the nature of the result, as opposed to performance convinced Fergie it was time to change again. The diamond reared its ugly head again, and the results were catastrophic…
Winter woes
Between the 29th December 2019 and 18th January 2020 Posh played four matches, collected just one point, scored just one goal, and put in their worst performance of the season in a 4-0 humiliation away to Rotherham. Posh have often struggle during the Christmas period and into January during recent seasons, but even for a seasoned viewer of Posh’s post-Christmas woes this four-game streak was particularly hard to watch.
It was made worse by the fact that almost every fan could see the diamond was handicapping the players. Not even the welcome additions of Brown and Taylor in midfield, addressing Posh’s failure to recruit midfielders in the summer and Szmodics as a replacement, and upgrade, on Maddison at ‘10’ could change Posh’s fortunes.
Had Posh approached these four games in the 3-4-1-2 formation which both preceded and followed this run of fixtures it seems incredibly likely they would have collected at least the extra point needed to reach the playoffs. As it was Posh again limped through the Christmas period and early January in unconvincing fashion. It has been an unwelcome trend in recent seasons and one Posh need to eradicate next season if they are to give themselves the best possible shot at promotion.
Ivan Toney’s suspension
No one can blame Toney for Posh failing to make the playoffs. Were it not for Toney Posh would not have been anywhere near the promotion picture. However, following the four games in the last section Posh went on an incredible run of form. The 3-4-1-2 returned, Dembele was partnered with Toney up top, and Posh won six on the bounce defeating fellow promotion challengers Wycombe, Rotherham, Ipswich and Oxford along the way.
However, in the last game of that sequence, a 4-0 home win against Southend, Toney picked up his 10th yellow card of the season which ruled him out of the next two games, away to Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion. Posh were poor in both games, losing 2-1 at Fleetwood before drawing with 1-1 with a Burton side who looked bereft of confidence and there for the taking.
Posh are a shadow of themselves without Toney. It is not just Toney’s goals which Posh miss but his contribution to build-up play and defensive work rate. Toney’s physicality combined with excellent technique, link-up and hold-up play mean that Posh are at their best when playing quality balls direct into him, giving them a foothold in the opposition half and allowing Toney to bring Dembele and Szmodics into the game. Without Toney, Posh have to play short and build-up patiently through the thirds, something they have struggled with all season.
For the games in question Fergie decided to pair Eisa up front with Dembele. I said at the time and I stand by it, such a partnership was the worst solution he could have come up with. Due to having to find a way of progressing the ball into the final third without Toney Posh should have switched to a 3-4-2-1, brought Reed (or Knight) in to partner Taylor in midfield and pushed Brown up to play as a free roaming playmaker next to Szmodics (who is more of a shadow striker) in attacking midfield behind Dembele. Such a combination would have given Posh options, and players comfortable operating, between the lines. Failing that, partnering Idris Kanu with Dembele in a 3-4-1-2 would have at least given Posh a physical presence up front and it is no surprise Posh looked much better following Kanu’s introduction in the Fleetwood game.
With Eisa up front alongside Dembele Posh controlled possession in deep areas but struggled to get possession in dangerous positions or create chances. Posh mustered an average non-penalty xG of just 0.35 (season average 1.52) in those two games, attempting just six shots in each (season average 13.05).
As things panned out, had Toney lasted just another three matches without picking up a yellow card he would have avoided a second suspension all together. Had Toney played against Burton and Fleetwood would Posh have picked up the extra point they needed from those two games? Given what came before and after (a 2-0 home win against Portsmouth) you have to say it’s incredibly likely. However, Posh still had enough quality in their side to pick up a minimum of two points from those two games, however they got their team selection wrong, failed to find a winning formula in Toney’s absence and faltered at what turned out to be the worst possible time.
Sheer Bad Luck, A Global Pandemic and Incompetent Governing Body
As much as I wanted to avoid talking about it you can’t write an article like this without mentioning the EFL’s highly controversial, and at times farcical, handling of the early curtailment of the League One season. It feels as though fait and some questionable decision making from the powers that be conspired against Posh at the end of the season.
Posh appeared to be peaking at the right time to mount a late charge for promotion. This is something confirmed by the very intelligent guys at FiveThirtyEight who, at the time when the season stopped, predicted Posh had a 42% chance of promotion and ranked them as the best side in the division.
However, a series of events transpired to cost Posh a shot at promotion. Despite sitting sixth in the table, Posh were leapfrogged by Wycombe Wanderers, who were eighth at the time, on PPG, by virtue of Wycombe being level on points with Posh having played a game less. The game they missed, an away trip to leaders Coventry City.
The EFL decided to go with unweighted PPG as the method to settle the season having previously flirted with the idea of settling the league table by weighted PPG, which would have seen Posh finish fifth, Wycombe sixth and Portsmouth drop out of the playoffs having sat fourth when the season was terminally suspended.
Weighted PPG was rejected as it was deemed to be ‘predictive’. However, what it did at least do was level out home advantage accrued due to an incomplete fixture list. Posh sat on the wrong side of fortune when it came to fixtures played/left to play. As we can see from the table below taken from soccerstats.com, Posh had a statistically easier run-in than most of their rivals.
Moreover, Posh had played a higher proportion of away games than both Portsmouth and Wycombe, the two sides Posh were effectively battling for one of two playoff spots depending on the method chosen to decide the final table. All three sides boasted far superior records at home than away. Unweighted PPG put Wycombe and Portsmouth at a marked and unfair advantage based on the fixtures which had been played when the season stopped.
Team
|
Home Games
|
Away Games
|
Home PPG
|
Away
PPG
|
Unweighted PPG
|
Weighted PPG
|
Posh
|
17
|
18
|
2.29
|
1.11
|
1.69
|
1.703
|
Wycombe
|
18
|
16
|
2.33
|
1.06
|
1.74
|
1.698
|
Portsmouth
|
18
|
17
|
2.33
|
1.06
|
1.71
|
1.696
|
Was weighted PPG a better solution? Probably not. It is almost impossible to argue that Pompey deserved to drop out of the playoffs having been fourth when the season stopped. Indeed, no side should drop from a playoff position to outside the playoffs without a game being played, unless they are given a points deduction for off-field misdemeanours, and that was the cruel fait which awaited Posh. Equally though, Wycombe should not have missed out due to having played fewer games and having fewer opportunities to pick up points.
Therefore, both unweighted and weighted PPG were both wholly unfair ways of deciding the final League One table. Posh, Portsmouth and Wycombe should all have had a chance to earn promotion on the pitch, either through finishing the season or an extended five team playoff. Posh were shafted, well and truly, by a weak and incompetent EFL and the majority of their competitors voting in self-interest to finish the season in a way which benefited themselves.
One final note of Posh’s misfortune with the whole PPG debacle. On what turned out to be the final matchday of the regular League One season Portsmouth and Fleetwood played out a 2-2 draw. Posh fans saw it as a great result at the time. However, any result other than a draw in that game would have meant that Posh finished sixth on unweighted PPG. You really couldn’t make it up…
Concluding Thoughts
The 2019/20 season will surely go down as a ‘What If?’ season for the majority of fans, players and staff at Posh. While Posh were undoubtedly handed a dud hand by some questionable off field decision making and incompetent handling of a global pandemic, there were still a number of opportunities missed; such as Fergie sticking with a formation which didn’t suit the players at his disposal and Posh’s failure to adequately recruit midfield players last summer.
That said though Posh were painfully unlucky given how things panned out. When the season came to its early climax Posh weren’t just beating teams, they were hammering their promotion rivals (when Toney was available) and had an exciting side packed full of young talent including the best player in the league. This season will be a bitter pill to swallow for a long time to come and will only become more palatable if and when Posh finally secure promotion back to the Championship. Here’s hoping it seventh time lucky next year!
