Should Diamonds Be Forever - 5 Possible Formations Analysed

Posh, despite sitting third in the League One table and currently being the top scorers across the top four divisions of English football, have struggled for both consistent performances and results in recent weeks. Arguably the performances, if not results, have dipped since a string of excellent performances against Sunderland, MK Dons and Rochdale. However, it is an eight day spell which has most alarmed some fans, with defeats against Blackpool and Shrewsbury being followed by a laboured draw against the side currently second bottom in the football league.

As such I will ask the question of whether Fergie should stick with his favoured diamond formation, or switch to one of the alternatives provided in the article.

4-1-2-1-2 Midfield Diamond

Possible First XI (where no clear first choice multiple options are included)

Pym

Mason/Thompson/Ward  Kent    Beevers    Blake-Tracy/Butler

Reed

Knight                     Boyd

 Maddison

Toney    Eisa

Record This season

Posh have started 14 of their 17 league games in this shape. They have an excellent record when starting in this system W8 D4 L2 PPG2. This would equate to 92 points over the course of the season which would nearly always guarantee promotion. However, this record might be slightly inflated by the fact that Posh have switched shape in game in five of those 14 matches. They have switched shape three times in a losing position (drawing one and losing two) and twice when level in games (winning both). Thus, if the record was taken at the point of these switches it would read P14 W6 D5 L3 PPG1.6, a record which if continued over the course of the season would typically we good enough for a playoff finish. It is obviously impossible to say for sure how those matches would have ended had Posh not changed formation. However, it was clear in most the change of formation was accompanied by an improved performance.

Pros

The diamond has long been Ferguson’s go to formation at both Posh and Doncaster. At times it has been a scintillating success, being the driver behind high-scoring promotions and Posh have produced some stunning performances in this shape against Sunderland, MK Dons and Rochdale.

It is also a shape which allows Posh to get their attacking trio of Maddison, Eisa and Toney on the pitch at the same time without playing any out of position. Considering that trio have scored 33 league goals between them this season it is a huge benefit to be able to get them all on the pitch at the same time.

Furthermore, it is a formation tailor made to counter teams that play an open and expansive style. It allows Posh to focus their build up play across 6 (keeper included) vertical lines, giving them great options to exploit spaces left by the opposition, especially in central areas. It is also a formation that allows Posh to get creative players at both points of midfield, with Reed and Maddison both excellent progressive passers at League One level.

Cons

As with any formation it is not without its flaws. In a diamond the primary drawback can be the narrowness of the midfield. This can have issues in both attacking and defensive phases. When defending Posh are susceptible to sides who attack at pace out wide. The large distances the two number 8s have to cover mean that sides can overload and isolate Posh’s fullbacks. Posh have been particularly susceptible to switches of play this season, something that Blackpool exploited with great effect.

In attack Posh have found it difficult to break down packed, deep lying defences, with the lack of width making it difficult for Posh to stretch and manoeuvre mass defences to create space for their front three to thrive. When posh have had the most success in this formation historically, they have had quick attacking fullbacks (e.g. Tommy Rowe, Mark Little) who can provide attacking width. On this note, the inclusion of Joe Ward at right back may help provide Posh with more attacking width.

Verdict

A great option against possession based sides but Posh need a different strategy when playing against deep lying defences. Fergie has been flexible with his formations in game but it may be time to begin picking starting formations based on opposition strengths, weaknesses and style. Toney’s suspension for Posh’s next league game could provide a catalyst to try something different.

Flat 4-4-2

Possible First XI

Pym

Mason/Thompson/Ward         Kent    Beevers               Blake-Tracy/Butler

Maddison/Ward    Knight/Woodyard   Reed/Boyd    Dembele/Boyd/Maddison

Toney      Eisa

Record This Season  

Appalling. Played three (regardless of what Ferguson claims in practice Oxford and Fleetwood was 4-4-2) lost three, and three tepid performances to boot.

Pros

Solves the issues regarding width in the diamond while still getting Maddison, Eisa and Toney on the pitch together. The formation also allows Posh to get players with pace and skill into wide areas should they wish.

Cons

Posh have really struggled in this formation with ball progression being a major worry. All three performances when Posh have lined up 4-4-2 have been poor and there is no reason to predict this changing in the near future.

Verdict

Tried it, there are better options, move on for now.

3-4-1-2

Possible First XI

Pym

Kent/Thompson/Mason/Bennett    Beevers/Kent/Bennett    Beevers/Blake-Tracy/Mason/Butler

Maddison/Ward            Knight/Woodyard   Boyd/Reed  Maddison/Butler/Blake-Tracy/Dembele

Maddison/Boyd

                                                          Toney     Eisa

Record This Season

Posh have spent a total of 188 minutes in this shape across four matches. In that time they have scored five and conceded three goals, winning 2-1 from a 0-0 score line against Gillingham and drawing 2-2 with Coventry from 1-0 behind. The switch to 3-4-1-2 did however not prevent Posh from succumbing to losses against Blackpool (3-2 down when switched, 4-3 at fulltime) and Doncaster (2-0 down when switched, 2-0 at fulltime). It has on the whole though lead to improved performances when utilised, especially in games Posh whereby were being overrun in wide areas defensively by direct, wing oriented attacks.

Pros

Having an extra body in midfield should help Posh to control possession and progress the ball more efficiently through the lines. At times Posh have found ball progression a challenge against packed and organised midfield units however the extra man in midfield and width should help Ferguson to implement the high tempo, short passing style he prizes.

The extra centre back should in theory provide greater defensive solidity, while the shape also provides Posh with more options laterally across the pitch in both attack and defence. This should help both when breaking down sides in a low block and also when defending against direct sides who play with width/attack down the wings. It also still allows for a number 10, meaning Posh can get a creative player in a largely free role behind the front two, creating an extra vertical line of attack thus allowing for greater options between opposition defensive lines. The formation may also be key to getting the best out of Butler who thrived in a left wing-back role for Newport.

Crucially, it allows Posh to keep Maddison, Toney and Eisa in the same positions they’ve currently occupied to great effect this season.

Cons

Posh lack a natural option for the third left-sided centre back. In an ideal world Kent would play on the right, with Beevers centrally and perhaps a pacier, ball carrying centre back on the left. Blake-Tracy, Mason and Butler may all be candidates for this role but none are naturals in that position. Josh Knight, although not a natural on the left hand side, may also be considered for this role, however there’s a good chance Fergie would want to use him as one of the two central midfielders. There is also a balancing act between getting players with a good attacking output in the wing-back roles without leaving the defence overly exposed in the opposite direction.

Verdict

An interesting option with potential to revisit later in season. Unlikely to be used in the next league game with Toney suspended, and probably requires defensive reinforcements in January before it can be considered Posh’s primary option. Definitely an option against direct sides and sides who Posh are struggling to break down.

4-2-3-1

Possible First XI

Pym

Mason/Ward/Thompson        Kent           Beevers                Blake-Tracy/Butler

Reed/Boyd    Knight/Woodyard

Ward/Maddison/Eisa            Maddison/Boyd          Maddison/Dembele

Eisa/Toney

Record This Season

Posh have spent a total of 41 minutes in this formation this season across two games. The 23 minutes they spent in this formation against Doncaster did little to change the game with Posh already 2-0 down. The 18 minutes against Lincoln on the other hand were blistering. With posh scoring twice to win 2-0 and Dembele’s pace and trickery proving the key to unlocking the Imps defence.

Pros

The prospect of having Maddison, Boyd and Dembele all lining up in advanced positions behind a proven goal scorer is tantalising. With Boyd in the 10 role and Maddison and Dembele out wide it is a trio of attackers who provide creativity, skill and a goal threat while Maddison and Dembele would provide pace out wide.

Posh also have an abundance of players who could play the double pivot role so it could become more defensive (combination of Reed, Woodyard, Knight) or progressive (combination of Boyd, Reed, Knight) depending on the opposition and demands of the game.

Also transfer argument for extra man in midfield and width in terms of possession and ball transitioning 3-4-1-2 here.

Cons

First and foremost it means leaving one of League One’s joint top scorers on the bench. This is a high risk strategy and would leave Fergie open to enormous levels of criticism should it backfire. Although Toney’s suspension does provide something of a free hit to experiment with this formation against Burton.

At the back end of last season Toney demonstrated he can play in a lone striker role in this exact formation to great effect however Eisa is unproven in this role. With Eisa leading the line on his own he would have to find a way of influencing the game more frequently, whether that be by using his pace to run in behind and stretch teams to create space between defence and midfield for the three behind him or by dropping deeper to link play and release space for the wide players in behind. In remains untested whether he can fulfil this role.

Verdict

Will surely be the go-to formation in Toney’s absence against Burton, success in that game will determine whether it is used in the future.

4-3-3

Possible First XI

Pym

Mason/Ward/Thompson        Kent           Beevers                Blake-Tracy/Butler

           Knight/Woodyard/Ward/Tasdemir            Reed         Boyd/Tasdemir/Ward/Burrows

Ward/Maddison/Eisa                                             Maddison/Dembele/Boyd

Eisa/Toney

Record This Season

Untried, untested

Pros

Similar to 4-2-3-1 in terms of width, extra body in midfield allowing ball progression. One benefit of the formation is that having the extra man in central midfield as opposed to an advanced 10 should somewhat lighten the defensive work load of the two advanced wide players allowing them more time to unleash their pace and trickery in the final third more often.

It also provides many options in terms of midfield rotation. Reed would likely perform the deep lying role as a 6 or 6/8, however either side of side of him there are options as Knight can play as a box-to-box 8, Woodyard as a ball winner, or Boyd and Tasdemir as more advanced midfielders in a 8/10 hybrid (think De Bruyne and Silva at Manchester City).

Cons

Obviously dropping one of Toney and Eisa (or shifting Eisa out wide) is a drawback considering there form. It also requires Posh to attack without an orthodox 10, which may impact on their attacking output. However, having creative or forward thinking midfielders in two of the three central midfield roles should somewhat counteract this potential limitation.

Verdict

Won’t be considered, but probably should be.

Conclusion

Darren Ferguson has shown far greater in-game tactical flexibility than in previous reigns which is a huge plus and has probably enabled Posh to gather more points than they would otherwise have done. However, he needs to show greater innovation in his pre-match strategies. The midfield diamond should not be completely abandoned, but nor should it be seen as a one-size-fits-all approach that it often appears to be. Against possession based sides it is effective in both providing defensive security in central areas and providing options to exploit gaps left by the opposition. Against sides who pack central areas defensively, and/or employ a direct, wing oriented attacking approach, Ferguson may have to consider one of the other solutions discussed above. There is nothing wrong with adjusting your approach to exploit the weaknesses and negate the strengths of the opposition, especially if you can do so while still getting your best players on the pitch in their best positions as often as possible.

Why Relentless Rodgers is Perfect Antidote to Foxes Malaise

Four seasons on from their shock title win Leicester find themselves 3^rd in the Premier League table after 11 games, just two  points behind a Manchester City side who are one of the greatest to ever grace these shores and eight points behind current Champions League winners Liverpool. They can currently claim to be the ‘best of the rest’ among a pack of five or six sides with realistic Champions League hopes but no chance of toppling the divisions two standout sides.

Taking the above statement in isolation one would probably assume that it has been a relatively smooth ride since their 2015/16 glory, with Leicester consolidating themselves amongst the Premier League elite.

The real story is fascinating, tragic and far more complex than that. It is a story of managerial sackings, player complacency, key player sales, reported dressing room coups and the tragic loss of a hugely likeable owner.

Since their title triumph Leicester have recorded mid table finishes of 12^th, 9^th and 9^th. In that time three managers have lost their job. First the charismatic and hugely entertaining Claudio Ranieri bit the dust, just nine months after he had guided the then relegation favourites to the most remarkable of titles, with the champion’s just one point above the Premier League relegation zone with 13 games remaining.

Ranieri’s assistant Craig Shakespeare took up the reigns, amid whispers that he was the true tactical inspiration behind Leicester’s title win with Ranieri merely the public figurehead. After initially overseeing an upturn in fortunes, Shakespeare lasted just eight month as he was unable to improve Leicester’s performances long term and left with the side in the relegation zone after eight matches of the 2017/18 season.

Shakespeare was replaced by Claude Puel, an appointment which failed to excite either the fan base or players. Again we see a similar story. An initial upturn in results and hugely respectable 9^th place finish was accompanied by player unrest, disillusionment at Puel’s perceived ‘negative’ tactics and the manager’s departure less than a year and a half into his tenure.

They say getting to the summit is hard but staying there is much harder. It is no coincidence that only three managers: Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola have ever retained the Premier League Title. All three are relentless winners, never pausing for breath in their pursuit of the next trophy.

Ranieri, Shakespeare and Puel all had their strengths but the shared one fatal trait, an inability to motivate a talented group of players who had reached the summit but had no realistic opportunity to return there.

United with a sense of purpose to make history, as the usual suspects fell by the wayside Leicester’s group of previously unheralded misfits and bargain buys found a level of performance and consistency that was unimaginable at the start of the season. This was a side who had looked relegation certainties for much of the previous season before an extraordinary late run of 22 points from their final 9 games secured a survival which appeared almost as unlikely as the title winning season itself when Leicester were sat bottom on 19 points after 29 games going into April.

Having achieved the impossible, and in the process secured their place in club folklore as well as Premier League and world football history, the players’ performances nosedived as did results. Here was a group of unmotivated and uninspired players, happy to bask in the glow of their once in a lifetime achievement. Only when an unthinkable relegation threatened did the side achieve anything resembling their 2015/16 performance levels the following season.

A sense of malaise had swept the club, bumper contracts and endless levels of goodwill had made the players who wanted to stay, if not the manager, untouchable. Standards slipped and rather than being the catalyst which propelled Leicester into the stratosphere of the elite, the title win became a justification for mid table mediocrity. Leicester had achieved all they could, what was the point in pushing on if things would never get that good again?

This was a side which needed a spark to ignite it, to inspire to demand the excellence that shook the Premier League elite to its core. In February 2019 that catalyst for improvement arrived in the form of Brendan Rodgers.

Rodgers is a man who has a relentless obsession with excellence. He has an unlimited drive to seek that he ensures both himself, and his sides, are the best they can possibly be. So fixated with personal development is he that he learned both Spanish and Italian to enhance his job prospects. He is also the man which helped set the standards and philosophy that allowed a Swansea side to punch well above its weight for years after he had left.  

Rodgers’ relentless drive for excellence is simultaneously his greatest strength and also the trait which cost him potentially his career defining moment.

With Liverpool within touching distance of Manchester City in the race to be crowned 2013/14 Premier League Champions Rodgers’ side squandered a 3-0 lead against Crystal Palace to draw 3-3. His tunnel vision and fixation with chasing down city’s goal difference meant both he and his side lost sight of the bigger picture. The most important thing in that game was three points and to maintain pressure on Manchester City.

At 3-0 it was perfectly logical to pile forward, chase more goals and close the goal difference gap. But at 3-1 and especially 3-2, warning bells should have been ringing that the goal difference game was up and it was time to setup shop. In the heat of battle Rodgers’ relentless obsession with the perfect result did not let him settle for good enough and live to fight another day.

It is easy to lose sight of the big picture when one becomes fixated on smaller details. It is the same psychological phenomenon that has caused pilots to crash planes when fixated on wheel warning lights and are thus unaware that their fuel is quickly running dangerously low. Rodgers’s error was not on the same magnitude as this, but the same principles apply and when next in heat of battle (he was largely untested winning back-to-back titles at Celtic) it will be interesting to see if Rodgers has learnt from his mistake.

But what proved his undoing in that title run-in is now the exact same trait which has allowed him to revitalise his current side who had sleep walked into mediocrity following their greatest of triumphs.

At Leicester Rodgers inherited a talented, but under-performing squad. A group who had excelled when united behind a historic common goal, but had since let standards slip in the relatively mundane seasons which followed. It was a side unmotivated by the tiny carrot of a seventh placed finished, and which would only burst into life when whacked by the enormous stick in the guise potential relegation.

It is a side which needed to be challenged, needed a manager which unrelentingly high expectations to raise the ceiling of what could be achieved, to accept nothing less than the highest of standards in everything they do.

This is exactly what Rodgers has already achieved in his short time at Leicester. He forfeited the chance of a treble-treble with Celtic to take over a side where he believes a top four finish should be regarded as a realistic goal. By raising standards and expectations of what is achievable he has awoken this Leicester side from their malaise and revitalised the club. He is a perfectionist and the players have bought into his all-encompassing desire for improvement.

We have seen this relentless nature manifest itself on the pitch in the past 14 days. Teams do not typically win 9-0. Often when in the process of handing out a thrashing the winning side is inclined to sit off, relax, and conserve one’s energies for the challenges ahead. This is not something that Rodgers will allow this Leicester side to do. And the fact that they overcame a tricky trip to Palace in the following game speaks volumes for the culture Rodgers is fostering and the fact that players were not allowed to rest on their laurels following a record breaking win.

It takes an ambitious and brave manager to raise the bar of expectations. When setting expectations high it is often the manager who pays the price should they not be met. Fans and owners also tend to have short memories. And many managers have discovered that even if you were the one to initiate the climb this is not enough to save you should you then begin to fall.

Leicester may not qualify for the Champions League this season, they may not even finish in the top six. But one thing is for sure. Rodgers will accept nothing less than the pursuit of excellence from his players. If they fall short of his targets it will not be because they were allowed standards to slip. And the players will not be able to chuck a manager with the strength of character of Rodgers under the same bus that Ranieri found himself. If Rodgers and this Leicester side fail, they will fail while striving to be the best they can be.