Posh, despite sitting third in the League One table and
currently being the top scorers across the top four divisions of English
football, have struggled for both consistent performances and results in recent
weeks. Arguably the performances, if not results, have dipped since a string of
excellent performances against Sunderland, MK Dons and Rochdale. However, it is
an eight day spell which has most alarmed some fans, with defeats against
Blackpool and Shrewsbury being followed by a laboured draw against the side
currently second bottom in the football league.
As such I will ask the question of whether Fergie should
stick with his favoured diamond formation, or switch to one of the alternatives
provided in the article.
4-1-2-1-2
Midfield Diamond
Possible First
XI (where no clear first choice multiple options are included)
Pym
Mason/Thompson/Ward Kent
Beevers Blake-Tracy/Butler
Reed
Knight Boyd
Maddison
Toney Eisa
Record This season
Posh have started 14 of their 17 league games in this shape.
They have an excellent record when starting in this system W8 D4 L2 PPG2. This
would equate to 92 points over the course of the season which would nearly
always guarantee promotion. However, this record might be slightly inflated by
the fact that Posh have switched shape in game in five of those 14 matches.
They have switched shape three times in a losing position (drawing one and
losing two) and twice when level in games (winning both). Thus, if the record
was taken at the point of these switches it would read P14 W6 D5 L3 PPG1.6, a
record which if continued over the course of the season would typically we good
enough for a playoff finish. It is obviously impossible to say for sure how
those matches would have ended had Posh not changed formation. However, it was
clear in most the change of formation was accompanied by an improved
performance.
Pros
The diamond has long been Ferguson’s go to formation at both
Posh and Doncaster. At times it has been a scintillating success, being the
driver behind high-scoring promotions and Posh have produced some stunning
performances in this shape against Sunderland, MK Dons and Rochdale.
It is also a shape which allows Posh to get their attacking
trio of Maddison, Eisa and Toney on the pitch at the same time without playing
any out of position. Considering that trio have scored 33 league goals between
them this season it is a huge benefit to be able to get them all on the pitch
at the same time.
Furthermore, it is a formation tailor made to counter teams
that play an open and expansive style. It allows Posh to focus their build up
play across 6 (keeper included) vertical lines, giving them great options to
exploit spaces left by the opposition, especially in central areas. It is also
a formation that allows Posh to get creative players at both points of
midfield, with Reed and Maddison both excellent progressive passers at League
One level.
Cons
As with any formation it is not without its flaws. In a
diamond the primary drawback can be the narrowness of the midfield. This can
have issues in both attacking and defensive phases. When defending Posh are
susceptible to sides who attack at pace out wide. The large distances the two
number 8s have to cover mean that sides can overload and isolate Posh’s
fullbacks. Posh have been particularly susceptible to switches of play this
season, something that Blackpool exploited with great effect.
In attack Posh have found it difficult to break down packed,
deep lying defences, with the lack of width making it difficult for Posh to
stretch and manoeuvre mass defences to create space for their front three to
thrive. When posh have had the most success in this formation historically,
they have had quick attacking fullbacks (e.g. Tommy Rowe, Mark Little) who can
provide attacking width. On this note, the inclusion of Joe Ward at right back
may help provide Posh with more attacking width.
Verdict
A great option against possession based sides but Posh need
a different strategy when playing against deep lying defences. Fergie has been
flexible with his formations in game but it may be time to begin picking
starting formations based on opposition strengths, weaknesses and style. Toney’s
suspension for Posh’s next league game could provide a catalyst to try
something different.
Flat 4-4-2
Possible First XI
Pym
Mason/Thompson/Ward Kent
Beevers Blake-Tracy/Butler
Maddison/Ward Knight/Woodyard Reed/Boyd
Dembele/Boyd/Maddison
Toney Eisa
Record This Season
Appalling. Played three (regardless of what Ferguson claims
in practice Oxford and Fleetwood was 4-4-2) lost three, and three tepid
performances to boot.
Pros
Solves the issues regarding width in the diamond while still
getting Maddison, Eisa and Toney on the pitch together. The formation also
allows Posh to get players with pace and skill into wide areas should they
wish.
Cons
Posh have really struggled in this formation with ball
progression being a major worry. All three performances when Posh have lined up
4-4-2 have been poor and there is no reason to predict this changing in the
near future.
Verdict
Tried it, there are better options, move on for now.
3-4-1-2
Possible First XI
Pym
Kent/Thompson/Mason/Bennett Beevers/Kent/Bennett Beevers/Blake-Tracy/Mason/Butler
Maddison/Ward Knight/Woodyard Boyd/Reed Maddison/Butler/Blake-Tracy/Dembele
Maddison/Boyd
Toney Eisa
Record This Season
Posh have spent a total of 188 minutes in this shape across
four matches. In that time they have scored five and conceded three goals, winning
2-1 from a 0-0 score line against Gillingham and drawing 2-2 with Coventry from
1-0 behind. The switch to 3-4-1-2 did however not prevent Posh from succumbing
to losses against Blackpool (3-2 down when switched, 4-3 at fulltime) and
Doncaster (2-0 down when switched, 2-0 at fulltime). It has on the whole though
lead to improved performances when utilised, especially in games Posh whereby
were being overrun in wide areas defensively by direct, wing oriented attacks.
Pros
Having an extra body in midfield should help Posh to control
possession and progress the ball more efficiently through the lines. At times
Posh have found ball progression a challenge against packed and organised
midfield units however the extra man in midfield and width should help Ferguson
to implement the high tempo, short passing style he prizes.
The extra centre back should in theory provide greater
defensive solidity, while the shape also provides Posh with more options
laterally across the pitch in both attack and defence. This should help both
when breaking down sides in a low block and also when defending against direct
sides who play with width/attack down the wings. It also still allows for a
number 10, meaning Posh can get a creative player in a largely free role behind
the front two, creating an extra vertical line of attack thus allowing for
greater options between opposition defensive lines. The formation may also be
key to getting the best out of Butler who thrived in a left wing-back role for
Newport.
Crucially, it allows Posh to keep Maddison, Toney and Eisa
in the same positions they’ve currently occupied to great effect this season.
Cons
Posh lack a natural option for the third left-sided centre
back. In an ideal world Kent would play on the right, with Beevers centrally
and perhaps a pacier, ball carrying centre back on the left. Blake-Tracy, Mason
and Butler may all be candidates for this role but none are naturals in that
position. Josh Knight, although not a natural on the left hand side, may also
be considered for this role, however there’s a good chance Fergie would want to
use him as one of the two central midfielders. There is also a balancing act
between getting players with a good attacking output in the wing-back roles
without leaving the defence overly exposed in the opposite direction.
Verdict
An interesting option with potential to revisit later in
season. Unlikely to be used in the next league game with Toney suspended, and
probably requires defensive reinforcements in January before it can be
considered Posh’s primary option. Definitely an option against direct sides and
sides who Posh are struggling to break down.
4-2-3-1
Possible First XI
Pym
Mason/Ward/Thompson Kent Beevers Blake-Tracy/Butler
Reed/Boyd Knight/Woodyard
Ward/Maddison/Eisa Maddison/Boyd Maddison/Dembele
Eisa/Toney
Record This Season
Posh have spent a total of 41 minutes in this formation this
season across two games. The 23 minutes they spent in this formation against
Doncaster did little to change the game with Posh already 2-0 down. The 18
minutes against Lincoln on the other hand were blistering. With posh scoring
twice to win 2-0 and Dembele’s pace and trickery proving the key to unlocking
the Imps defence.
Pros
The prospect of having Maddison, Boyd and Dembele all lining
up in advanced positions behind a proven goal scorer is tantalising. With Boyd
in the 10 role and Maddison and Dembele out wide it is a trio of attackers who
provide creativity, skill and a goal threat while Maddison and Dembele would
provide pace out wide.
Posh also have an abundance of players who could play the
double pivot role so it could become more defensive (combination of Reed,
Woodyard, Knight) or progressive (combination of Boyd, Reed, Knight) depending
on the opposition and demands of the game.
Also transfer argument for extra man in midfield and width
in terms of possession and ball transitioning 3-4-1-2 here.
Cons
First and foremost it means leaving one of League One’s
joint top scorers on the bench. This is a high risk strategy and would leave
Fergie open to enormous levels of criticism should it backfire. Although
Toney’s suspension does provide something of a free hit to experiment with this
formation against Burton.
At the back end of last season Toney demonstrated he can
play in a lone striker role in this exact formation to great effect however
Eisa is unproven in this role. With Eisa leading the line on his own he would
have to find a way of influencing the game more frequently, whether that be by
using his pace to run in behind and stretch teams to create space between
defence and midfield for the three behind him or by dropping deeper to link
play and release space for the wide players in behind. In remains untested
whether he can fulfil this role.
Verdict
Will surely be the go-to formation in Toney’s absence
against Burton, success in that game will determine whether it is used in the
future.
4-3-3
Possible First XI
Pym
Mason/Ward/Thompson Kent Beevers Blake-Tracy/Butler
Knight/Woodyard/Ward/Tasdemir Reed Boyd/Tasdemir/Ward/Burrows
Ward/Maddison/Eisa Maddison/Dembele/Boyd
Eisa/Toney
Record This Season
Untried, untested
Pros
Similar to 4-2-3-1 in terms of width, extra body in midfield
allowing ball progression. One benefit of the formation is that having the
extra man in central midfield as opposed to an advanced 10 should somewhat
lighten the defensive work load of the two advanced wide players allowing them
more time to unleash their pace and trickery in the final third more often.
It also provides many options in terms of midfield rotation.
Reed would likely perform the deep lying role as a 6 or 6/8, however either
side of side of him there are options as Knight can play as a box-to-box 8,
Woodyard as a ball winner, or Boyd and Tasdemir as more advanced midfielders in
a 8/10 hybrid (think De Bruyne and Silva at Manchester City).
Cons
Obviously dropping one of Toney and Eisa (or shifting Eisa
out wide) is a drawback considering there form. It also requires Posh to attack
without an orthodox 10, which may impact on their attacking output. However,
having creative or forward thinking midfielders in two of the three central
midfield roles should somewhat counteract this potential limitation.
Verdict
Won’t be considered, but probably should be.
Conclusion
Darren Ferguson has shown far greater in-game tactical
flexibility than in previous reigns which is a huge plus and has probably
enabled Posh to gather more points than they would otherwise have done.
However, he needs to show greater innovation in his pre-match strategies. The
midfield diamond should not be completely abandoned, but nor should it be seen
as a one-size-fits-all approach that it often appears to be. Against possession
based sides it is effective in both providing defensive security in central
areas and providing options to exploit gaps left by the opposition. Against
sides who pack central areas defensively, and/or employ a direct, wing oriented
attacking approach, Ferguson may have to consider one of the other solutions
discussed above. There is nothing wrong with adjusting your approach to exploit
the weaknesses and negate the strengths of the opposition, especially if you
can do so while still getting your best players on the pitch in their best
positions as often as possible.
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