How Do you Solve a Problem Like Louis Reed's Suspension?

Reed’s sending off and subsequent suspension for the trip to Gillingham presents Fergie with a major tactical dilemma. He has favoured consistency of selection and starting formation for the last 10 matches, with this approach being rewarded with an excellent run of form firing Posh up to 3^rd in the table. However, with no natural replacement for Reed in his favoured diamond formation, it will be interesting to see how Ferguson decides to shuffle the pack on Saturday. Below it’s an assessment of some of his options, including how likely each is to happen.

Option 1: Straight swap, other ten players remain the same, replacing player comes in at base of the diamond.

There are probably two options Fergie could take should he strive to maintain consistency of selection and limit disruption to his side.

Kyle Barker at the base of midfield

This would be the bold, adventurous and somewhat unlikely solution. Kyle Barker is just 18 years old but was exceptional in his first start against Arsenal U21s in the Leasing.com trophy. In his lone performance of the season he demonstrated excellent tactical discipline as he marshalled the Posh midfield also showing his extreme comfort on the ball and the bravery to play forward passes through the lines as the game wore on. He provides a slightly different option to Reed, as he favours keeping play ticking over through a succession of short passes as opposed to looking for the long, defence splitting pass. It would however be a huge gamble for Ferguson to throw him in for his first league appearance in a potentially tough and feisty away fixture to Gillingham.

Likeliness Rating: Exciting but unlikely. 3/10

Woodyard at base of midfield

The former skipper appeared to be an outcast in this new look Ferguson side when he was transfer listed after disappointing in the opening two games of the season. He has come back into contention in recent games, coming on as a sub with the intention of solidifying the midfield as Posh looked to see out wins. An honest, hard-working and combative player however his selection in this role would surely be a step backwards.

Last season demonstrated that Posh get bogged down in their own half too often with Woodyard at the base of midfield, hamstrung by his limited vision, passing and technical ability. If he is to have a place in this Posh side then it should remain as a late sub to see out games. It is possible Fergie will opt for his experience and tough tackling skillset against a direct Gillingham side. However, the fact Ferguson chose Barker to play at the base of the diamond instead of Woodyard against Arsenal U21s suggests he may have seen enough in the past to put him off returning to this option.

Likeliness Rating: An unimaginative option but possible. 5/10

Update 18/10/19

Niall Mason at base of midfield

When first reviewing the solutions I considered Mason playing on the right of midfield with Knight at the base and Nathan Thompson coming in at right back. What I failed to consider was the prospect of Mason playing at the base of midfield himself. This option has been mooted by Fergie throughout the week and now looks perhaps the most likely solution. The key benefit over playing Mason on the right of midfield is that avoids disrupting Knight's position in the side. Moreover Mason has both the the defensive attributes, comfort on the ball and passing ability to fulfil many of the same tasks as Louis Reed. Perhaps the only question mark is whether Mason has sufficient understanding of a tactically demanding role.

Likeliness Rating: Hinted at by Fergie and the one I'd put money on now. 7/10

Option 2: Drop Knight to base of diamond, bring in a replacement on right of midfield

Knight is a player who clearly has the ability on the ball and defensive discipline to fulfil the role at the base of the diamond, however given his importance to the balance of the side on the right of midfield Posh would have to select a player who can replace his energy and work rate in that position.

Joe Ward on right of midfield

Perhaps the most likely option. Was Ferguson’s first choice to step in when Boyd was injured and although at times he looked uncomfortable playing on the left he still managed to deliver two assists in that role. Would be far more comfortable playing on his natural side and was Posh’s Mr Consistent last season. Probably the player with the work rate and skillset to most closely replicate Knight's function in the side but with arguably brings greater attacking threat/ouput in final third.

Likeliness Rating: Wouldn’t let anyone down. 7/10

Niall Mason on right of midfield, Nathan Thompson at right back

A left field option but one which would make a lot of sense. Niall Mason has both defensive qualities and ability on the ball to replace Knight on the right of midfield, while Fergie will surely be keen to get minutes into Nathan Thompson who will not accept sitting on the bench for the rest of the season. Fergie has previous moved fullbacks into midfield with Russell Martin and clearly sees Mason as versatile player having employed him at left both against and for Doncaster. May not be as unlikely an option as it first seems.

Likeliness Rating: A creative solution and not totally implausible. 5/10

Woodyard on right of midfield

He played there against Arsenal U21s and did OK without pulling up any trees. Would ensure balance defensively and would bring similar work rate and energy to the role. It was noticeable in the Leasing.com game however how little Woodyard offers going forward and he lacks Knight’s dynamism on the ball. Would however be a better option than employing Woodyard in the ‘6’ role if Fergie did want to introduce his battling qualities and leadership to the side.

Likeliness Rating: More likely than him playing at the base of midfield. 6/10

Harrison Burrows on right of midfield

Another young Posh midfielder full of potential who would be chomping at the bit to be involved. An excellent cameo at MK Dons propelled him into the consciousness of many Posh fans, however he did little to enhance his case in trophy games against Northampton and Arsenal U21s. Would be a surprise to see him trusted from the start of this game but may be one to feature from the bench.

Likeliness Rating: Needed to do more in starts in Leasing.com Trophy 3/10

Option 3: Switch formation to 4-2-3-1 which saw Posh score twice against Lincoln, with Dembele coming in on the left wing

A idea floated by some sections of the Posh fan base following Dembele’s impact off the bench yesterday. Again there are probably two ways this could be implemented.

Dembele only personnel change, Eisa drops into 10 role with Maddison on right and Knight/Boyd in deep midfield roles

This is essentially the same setup as Posh tried to implement at the start of the season and resulted in them losing the opening two games. Knight at the base of midfield instead of Woodyard would be an improvement while Boyd would likely perform better in the deep role were he also given license to push on in possession. The key flaw is that Eisa was not suited to the role as second striker and was virtually non-existent in Posh’s opening two games. He has excelled as an out and out striker and this means it is pretty much a non-starter to think Posh would switch him back to his previous role.

Likeliness Rating: Didn’t work before and no reason to think Fergie will revisit this system. 2/10

Eisa drops to the bench, Boyd plays as ‘10’ with Knight and either Barker or Woodyard playing in deep lying midfield roles

This one may have legs in the future, especially when Reed returns to the starting 11. Given the positive impact this switch had on Saturday, and the mouth-watering prospect of having Boyd, Maddison and Dembele all playing behind Toney there is a good chance that this set up will be revisited at times throughout the season. If either Toney or Eisa were to suffer an injury this would likely be Posh’s go to formula.

 There are two key reasons why this approach won’t be used on Saturday. The first is that Fergie may struggle to find one player he trusts at ‘6’, let alone two, in Reed's absence. The second, and arguably more important reason, is that this would involve dropping Mo Eisa to the bench. Every time Eisa fails to score his critics start throwing accusations of him not being consistent enough. However, he has 9 league goals to his name already this season and has scored in 7 of the 10 games since Posh switched to the diamond. Dropping him on this form would be unthinkable.

Likeliness Rating: Won’t happen. 1/10