Why Posh Should Stick with a 3-4-1-2 Formation for the Rest of the Season

Darren Ferguson suggested after the Portsmouth game that he switched formation as he believed a 3-4-1-2 shape better suited the players he had at his disposal given the players missing through injury. I would take that logic a step further and suggest that even if/when everyone is back fit and available, the 3-4-1-2 formation is still the best fit for both the players and the challenges Posh will face against other sides in League One this season.

Why the 3-4-1-2 Best Suits Posh’s Players

To a man it is hard to think of a player who is not better suited to the 3-4-1-2 formation employed against both Portsmouth and Bolton when compared to the diamond. At the back Beevers’ key frailties, namely a lack of pace and struggles defending 1v1 are far less exposed in the middle of a back three than they are as a left sided centre back in a back four. Moreover, when in possession, having two ball playing defenders either side of him greatly lessens the passing demands placed on, something he has never looked comfortable with in a back four this season.

Playing in a three should also suit his regular centre back partner Frankie Kent, who has all the attributes (decent pace, good in possession, progressive passing, ball carrying) to thrive in a wide centre back role. The only downside being as a right footer playing on the left hand side he does occasionally have to cut back inside onto his right.

At right centre back Mason has played excellently. His comfort on the ball being perfect for the role while he has also not been afraid to make over/underlapping runs beyond his wing back. Defensively his occasional rashness in the tackle is somewhat mitigated by having an extra player to help defend wide areas. Posh also have another ideal candidate in Josh Knight (when fit again) to fulfil this role, provided Fergie does not want him in central midfield.

If Fergie does intend to persist with a back three, do not be surprised to see Posh dip into the January transfer market for a central defender, most likely one who is a natural fit on the left of a back three.

Playing with wing backs also suits both Ward and Butler, two players who at times struggled to adjust to the demands of the diamond. At left wing back Butler is now occupying the same role where he performed best last season for Newport County. He is beginning to demonstrate the sort of form that convinced Posh to sign in the summer, benefiting from the greater freedom to bomb forward, playing in a higher start position and slightly reduced defensive demands. Butler has attempted an average of 5 crosses per match over the past two matches, compared to an average of just 2.9 per 90 minutes prior to the Portsmouth match.

The right wing back role also seems a far more natural fit than either right back, or on either side of a midfield diamond, for Ward. From this position he can utilise his utilise his impressive work rate and pace to get up and down the right flank. This was evidenced against Bolton whereby Ward won 5 of his 6 ground duels, attempted 6 crosses, made 2 successful dribbles and 3 crosses, all of which were significantly higher than his seasonal averages per 90 minutes.

Furthermore, should Posh wish to employ a more attacking game plan, both Dembele and Kanu, two pacey, skilful and exciting players, should have more opportunities to get on the pitch in a 3-4-1-2 than they do in a diamond.

In midfield having three centre backs allows Louis Reed to receive the ball in more advanced positions. Whereas in the diamond he would typically either drop into the defensive line or receive the ball in front of the opposition’s highest pressing line, against both Bolton and Portsmouth he has been able to receive the ball 10-15 yards higher, behind the opposition’s highest defensive line. This has enabled more frequent ball progression from defence as Reed has been able to collect split passes from his defenders in the gap between the opposition attack and midfield. Playing in a double pivot also enabled Reed to drift from his central position to receive the ball in wider areas, as demonstrated when he moved to the right flank before delivering a pin point ball for the goal against Bolton. We can see the impact this higher position has had on Reed’s attacking passing output, averaging 2.5 key passes per game against Portsmouth and Bolton, compared to just 0.7 key passes per game across 16 League One matches prior to the Portsmouth match.

The change in shape has also allowed for the accommodation of the once exiled Alex Woodyard. Although not having the necessary qualities to fulfil any of the demanding midfield roles in the diamond, Woodyard has done well on his return to the side in his new role. Although probably not a starter when others are fit he is now a useful squad player, giving Posh greater depth than they previously appeared to have.

Whether it is Boyd or Knight who regularly partners Reed in midfield both should benefit from having to do less lateral coverage of the pitch. When on either side of the diamond the demands, both in attack and defence are huge, as the players are expected to operate simultaneously as wide and central midfielders. Boyd especially should find greater freedom to express himself going forwards, while the shape may also provide an opportunity to more easily bled exciting youngster Kyle Barker into the first team.

With Posh looking to recruit at least one additional midfielder in January, playing a 3-4-1-2 rather than a diamond would increase the pool of talent they would be able to select from. More potential signing would be able to fit into the new system, potentially allowing Posh to sign a higher calibre of player rather than being limited to one who can adjust to the demands of the diamond.

While the change in shape does not make a fundamental difference to the three attacking players, there will be minor benefits. The ‘10’, whether it be Maddison when fit, or Kanu/Tasdemir/Boyd deputising, will not be required to drift wide as often. Maddison especially is given a free role in possession, with license to drift wide and has done so to great effect, at times though Posh would have been better suited to him occupying central areas between the lines more regularly. The extra attacking width provided by the wing backs will allow Maddison to stay centrally more often, while when he does drift wide he will now have greater support in wide attacking areas.

Up front Eisa and Toney should benefit from receiving more passes from a slightly reduced distance from Posh’s best passer in Reed, as evidenced for the goal against Bolton. Moreover, playing with wing backs will allow Posh to put in more crosses from advanced positions, situations which created both goals against Portsmouth last weekend and that both forwards should thrive on.

Why it helps Address Weaknesses in Attack and Defence

In defence Posh have looked most susceptible when defending wide areas. Sides that attacked with speed down the flanks, switched play effectively or allowed their fullbacks to get forward caused Posh no end of problems. Posh’s fullbacks would frequently find themselves isolated or overloaded, with Boyd and Knight simply unable to cover the necessary ground to provide adequate support, especially when the ball was switched from one side to the other.

The 3-4-1-2 addresses some of these issues. With Posh effectively dropping into a back five to defend they have greater lateral pitch coverage in defence, leaving less space in the wide areas to exploit while the two pivots and three centre backs maintains their strength when defending central areas (before Posh had five players central defensively with two centre backs, a ‘6’ and two ‘8’s, now they still have five but with three centre backs and two ‘6/8’s).

Moreover, having an extra centre back allows for greater support of the wing back in wide areas while also providing an extra man in the box to defend crosses, which has at times been a real weakness for Posh. Finally a back five is harder to expose on the counter than a four, and this could be important with Posh occasionally looking vulnerable when playing against direct or long ball sides.

In attack Posh’s biggest weakness has been breaking down massed, organised defences. Although Posh carried a huge attacking threat in central areas and would punish sides that left gaps either in or between their defence and midfield, they struggled to manoeuvre and penetrate sides in deep blocks. The lack of natural width made moving the ball at a high tempo difficult due to the limited passing options for the player on the ball. As such Posh’s play would often slow, their ball progression suffer and they were unable to pull the opposition out of shape. Attacking wing backs should help address this flaw, provide attacking width and a wider passing radius for the player in possession. This should allow Posh more potential to outmanoeuvre defences and break down stubborn opposition. It is also noteworthy that all three of Posh’s goals against Portsmouth and Bolton came from wide areas, with two of the goals being created by an advanced cross from the left wing-back position.

Concluding Thoughts

No formation is perfect, if it were every side would play it. However, from the evidence and performances this season I think it’s becoming apparent that this Posh side is better in a 3-4-1-2 than it is in a diamond. A final point I would make in support of the new shape is their record in the system this season. Posh have only started two league games in a 3-4-1-2, gaining an excellent draw at Portsmouth and beating Bolton at home. Prior to that they had switched to the shape on four occasions. They have once switched to it when level, changing shape early against Gillingham at 0-0 and improving significantly to come away with a 2-1 win. On three occasions they have changed when behind. Although the game against Doncaster was already a lost cause, Posh improved after changing shape against Coventry (drawing 2-2 from 1-0 down) and Blackpool (eventually losing 4-3 having switched at 3-2 but looking better none-the-less). Notably, in none of these six matches have Posh conceded more goals than they have scored, nor has their level of performance ever dropped. Although this sample size is small, it adds to the weight of argument in support of the new system.

Although in the natural world diamonds may be forever, at Posh this season there is a strong case to be made that they should not be!