A lot has been made of Posh’s failure to convert a second
half 2-0 lead into 3 points in the midweek game at Tranmere. As is the nature
of football many took Tranmere’s comeback as evidence that a side who had won 4
league games on the bounce without conceding a goal suddenly had no chance of
promotion.
The truth, as is often the case, is a little more complex.
Tranmere are the archetypal team that Posh will struggle to beat this season. Direct,
hard-working and with a packed midfield they exposed pre-existing flaws in this
Posh side.
Posh are much happier playing against sides who like to
build from the back. They have become adept at setting traps, pressing high and
then quickly exploiting the space in transition to create chances. Tranmere did
not allow Posh to play like this. They played direct up to Stefan Payne who
proved a constant nuisance to the Posh back four. This posed two key challenges
to Posh that they have not had to face much of in recent matches:
1 Could they play out from the back regularly and
create chances from deep?
2 Could they defend against long balls and
directness of Tranmere?
The answer to the first of these was a resounding no.
Against a packed and compact midfield Posh failed to find space between the
lines and build from the back. Whether pre-planned or as a result of their
failings to build attacks from deep, 94 of Posh’s 355 passes were hit long,
while their average move lasted just 3 passes. It must be said that Toney
performed gamely winning 8 of his 14 aerial duels as Posh’s main, and at times
only outlet. However, their dependence on long balls to Toney was a huge
shortcoming especially as these passes lacked the accuracy and consistency of
recent matches. Moreover it made Posh predictable in attack as they appeared to
have only one way of transferring the ball up the pitch.
In truth it is no surprise Posh struggled to play through
Tranmere. They struggled to build from the back against both Fleetwood and
Oxford in their two opening matches, although admittedly playing with a
different formation and personnel in midfield. Moreover, the recent victories
have largely been built around exploiting space in transitions through quick
counters. In two of Posh’s recent victories against Southend and Rochdale, Posh
had just 37% and 36% possession, while against Sunderland they also had under
40% prior the red cards. The difference in these matches was the more open
nature of the sides gave plenty of opportunities to counter and Posh were
clinical in exploiting the space and chances presented to them.
There is nothing wrong with Posh being a counter attacking
side. Many teams in League One are now exponents of possession football and
Posh have found a formula which works for against these sides. What’s more in
Maddison, Toney and Eisa they possess a quick, skilful and clinical front three
who will thrive on this approach more often than not. It is just on Tuesday
night, against a side only interested in getting the ball into the opposition
half quickly and building attacks from there, chances for quick counters and a
high press/block were limited. Although Posh forged two good chances on the
break, they were denied the opportunities to win the ball high up the pitch
which they’d had in previous matches. Resultantly, Posh looked short of ideas
in attack for large periods and all the available evidence this season suggests
Posh will struggle to find a winning formula against sides who sit deep and
play direct this season.
This is something that Fergie will surely look to address. He
will want his side to look to build through the lines as plan ‘A’ and save long
balls to Toney as a back up/variation tactic, as opposed to the ONLY approach. They
will have a chance to address this against similar opposition AFC Wimbledon in
a week’s time, but for now I would have doubts about whether Posh currently
have the requisite skillset to dominate such a game.
The answer to whether Posh could defend against a side happy
to hit a large number of long balls is ‘better than against Fleetwood, but
still not perfect’. Stefan Payne up front for Tranmere was a constant thorn in
Posh’s side. He targeted Kent winning half of his 8 offensive duels and on occasions
bullying Kent. His strength and presence up front allowed Tranmere to create 14
shooting opportunities from open play and enjoy a large share of possession in
Posh’s half. Indeed more play took place in Posh’s defensive third (38%) than
any other part of the pitch.
That said Posh showed vast improvements when defending long
balls compared to their performance against a Fleetwood side that went direct
against them. Beevers now appears close to totally dominant in the air and won
all of his aerial battles on Tuesday. There were also no glaring errors when
defending long balls as there were against Fleetwood. It is just that in Kent,
they have a classy defender who is not best suited to defending against strong,
physical forwards. He did however battle gamely and Posh will be hoping that
over time he will mature and become more comfortable in this regard.
It is crosses that remain Posh’s Achilles heel defensively.
Posh must get better at both stopping crosses from coming into the box and
defending them when they do. On Tuesday night Tranmere’s first goal came from a
cross which was too easily converted, while the home side also had a whopping 6
shots from set pieces. Again this will be an area of concern for Ferguson and
one he will look to address imminently.
In such circumstances despite surrendering a 2 goal lead I
would argue that a point away to Tranmere was a largely positive result. That
Posh found a way to score twice despite not playing particularly well speaks
volumes for the quality the side has in attack. Moreover, Tranmere put in a
display full of energy and spirit and had a coherent plan of how to cause Posh problems.
Looking forwards to tomorrow’s game I fully expect Posh to
get back to winning ways against Doncaster. Doncaster are a side who play short
far more frequently than they play long and as the home side, their fans will
be expect them to attack. This should present far more space for Posh to exploit
in transition and Maddison should be able to exert a greater influence on the
game than he did on Tuesday night. My prediction is for Doncaster to enjoy more
possession but Posh to create the more dangerous opportunities and storm to a
3-1 win.
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