Friday, December 20, 2019

14 Potential Midfield Targets for Posh this January


The Most Likely

Greg Docherty (Rangers)
Profile: Age: 23  Height: 177cm  Build: Athletic  Nationality: Scotland

Availability: Very available from the clubs point of view. Has not been able to break into Rangers’ league side since his arrival two years ago and spent last season on loan at Shrewsbury Town. Will likely now be desperate for game time, whether that be as a permanent move or on loan.

Value: Moved to Rangers for a report £670K in January 2018 when he was a promising and much hyped 21 year old at Hamilton Academical. Rangers are likely to want to recoup most of what they paid for him so £500k-£750k seems about right. A loan move with option to buy is perhaps the most likely route.

Likelihood: 8/10. Available, fits usual player profile and was strongly linked with the club in the summer. Reportedly Docherty turned down a move to Posh back then, having failed to nail down a spot in the Rangers side this term he may reconsider should Posh come calling again.

Statistical Breakdown: N/A – No league appearances

Player Report: An attacking and creative ‘8’ who can double up as a ‘10’ or right sided midfielder. He was Shrewsbury Town’s player of the year last season after notching up seven goals and eight assists in 41 league appearances. At Shrewsbury he frequently drove forward in support of the attackers and demonstrated his ability to unlock defences with threaded through balls. Has the stamina, work rate and defensive attributes to play on either the side of a midfield diamond or in a 3-4-1-2. Would be a good stylistic fit and a strong all round midfielder possessing good energy, technique, passing, ball carrying ability and decent defensive output while also having an eye for goal.

Potential Signing Rating: 9/10. Available, proven at League One level and should be a good fit style wise. Only question is whether he fancies a move to Posh, although having spent two years unsuccessfully trying to break into the Rangers side he may feel it’s time to move on.



Herbie Kane (Liverpool)
Profile: Age: 21   Height: 176-177cm   Build: Medium   Nationality: England

Availability: Has only featured in two Carabao Cup matches for Liverpool this season, they’ll probably be keen to get him some game time on loan.

Value: Likely more than Posh could afford, but that doesn’t matter as any deal would be on loan. His wages are reported to be around £4-5k per week.

Likelihood: 7/10. Been linked heavily in the media. If Kane is available for loan he will no doubt have many potential takers so by no means a dead cert. Don’t be surprised to see a Championship side swoop in for him.

Statistical Breakdown: N/A

Player Report: Kane can play as a ‘6’, box-to-box ‘8’ or as an advanced midfielder which speaks volumes for his wide skillset and all round game. He excelled on loan at Doncaster last season where he scored seven and assisted nine goals. His comfort on the ball, passing range, technical ability and tenacity to regain possession would make him an ideal signing to fulfil a role on the side of a midfield diamond, but he could easily operate at the base or in a midfield two/three. Is capable of rolling players when pressed and carrying the ball out of defence, while he has excellent awareness, vision and favours the type of lofted through balls which both Toney and Eisa would thrive on. It’s hard to think of a realistic and available midfield signing with as vast a skillset as Kane, who is fast becoming the complete modern day midfielder.

Potential Signing Rating: 10/10. An ideal fit, proven at League One level and arguably a Championship level midfielder already, if Posh can get him, they should.



Jack Roles (Tottenham Hotspur, on loan at Cambridge United)

Profile: Age: 20  Height: 176cm  Build: Slim  Nationality: Cyprus

Availability: According to Transfermarkt his loan at Cambridge expires on 5th January 2020. With Spurs likely to want to loan him out again this would make him very available.

Value: Largely irrelevant as any signing will be on loan as Roles is highly rated at Spurs. Posh would likely have to smash their transfer record to sign him permanently, and even then they may not be able to afford him. His wages are reported to be around the £7K a week mark, although it’s unlikely Posh would have to pay all of that as it’s very hard to imagine that Cambridge have been doing so.

Likelihood: 8/10 The signing would make a lot of sense. Posh would not have to pay a fee for a player who would add depth and quality to the squad in key areas of the pitch. Roles would have an opportunity to test himself at a higher level without having to move to far away from either London or his current side. Posh also have a good relationship from Spurs having taken the likes of Pritchard, McGhee, McEvoy and Oduwa on loan in recent years. Easy to see this one happening.

Statistcal Breakdown: League Appearances: 7(7)   Goals: 3   Assists: 0   Big Chances Created: 1

Key Passes per 90: 2.2   Successful dribbles per 90: 3 (79%)   Shots per 90: 2.8

Passes in Opposition half per 90: 22.8 (64%)   Pass Accuracy: 73%   Touches per 90: 69

Ground Duels Won: 62.7%   Tackles per 90: 2.5 (64%)   Interceptions per 90: 0.3

Player Report: A player of undoubted potential and ability for his age. A key facet of Roles’ game is his versatility as he is capable of playing as a; deep lying midfielder, box to box ‘8’, ‘10’, wide midfielder or second striker. This would be a key plus for Posh as he could occupy any midfield or attacking role in either the diamond or a 3-4-1-2. A hard worker on and off the ball, excellent dribbler with good technique and an eye for goal from both inside and outside the area he would be a strong stylistic fit for Fergie’s Posh side.
Roles was one of the standout players in Tottenham U23s last season, with 11 goals and 6 assists across 29 games for the side. He has also put in a number of fine displays for Cambridge this year, an ever-present in their squad (although not always a starter) he won the PFA October League Two Player of The Month Award. It might be of some concern that he has only appeared as a substitute in half of Cambridge’s games this season (including each of the last three) and has only completed 90 minutes on four occasions, although this may be partially explained by an injury picked up in October.

Potential Signing Rating: 8/10. A hugely talented player who would provide competition/cover in a number of key areas. More than worth a gamble on a six month loan, ideally with an option to extend next season if the loan spell is successful, others on the list are proven at League One level however.




The Possible

Ebou Adams (Forest Green Rovers)
Profile: Age: 23  Height: 178-181cm  Build: Athletic  Nationality: Gambia

Availability: A key player for League Two promotion chasers Forest Green Rovers who he only joined for an undisclosed (nominal) fee in the summer from Ebbsfleet United. Forest Green are unlikely to want to sell, but  it would be hard for a club of their stature to stand in his way.

Value: Signed for peanuts on a two year deal in June, Forest Green will make a very tidy profit should they decide to sell. £400k-£750K seems about right with a hefty sell on clause, but hard to place an exact value.

Likelihood: 5/10. Not heard any rumours in the press but given the age and profile of Adams he is surely a player that Posh are tracking given their extensive scouting network. Adams will have plenty of admirers given his performances this season and is likely make the step up to League One soon, however given the fact he only joined in the summer he may wait six months to see if Forest Green can gain promotion before deciding to move on.

Statistical Breakdown: League Appearances: 15(4)   Goals: 3   Assists: 2   Big Chances Created: 2

Key Pass per 90: 0.9   Successful Dribbles per 90: 1.1 (73%)   Shots per 90: 1.4  

Passes in Opposition half per 90: 22.4 (73%)   Pass Accuracy: 77%   Touches per 90: 70.3

Ground Duels Won: 70.3%   Tackles per 90: 3.5 (85%)   Interceptions per 90: 1.1

Player Report: A destructive, tough tackling central midfielder with an outstanding work rate who can operate as either a ‘6’ or box-to-box ‘8’. Would be fit nicely on either the side of the diamond or at the base of it and as a box-to-box/screen midfielder alongside Reed in a 3-4-1-2. His all round game should not be underestimated, he is a classy ball player and demonstrated fine vision with one superb lofted through ball assist against Cheltenham earlier this season. Despite not being the tallest he has an excellent aerial record and like many others in this list can carry the ball out of defence or break lines with his dribbling. Others profiled here may be slightly more technically gifted, but none who are available on a permanent move are as complete a central midfielder as Adams.

Potential Signing Rating: 9/10. An outstanding all-rounder who has the energy and necessary qualities on and off the ball to excel in a diamond midfield or as a double pivot.



Callum Camps (Rochdale)
Profile: Age: 24   Height: 180cm   Build: Medium   Nationality: Northern Ireland

Availability: Alongside Henderson he is Rochdale’s most important player. However they are a small club at League One level and would likely (and have previously) entertain a sizeable offer.

Value: Valued by Transfermarkt at £180K but this seems wide of the mark. £500K-£750K seems more realistic.

Likelihood: 5/10. Turned down Posh in the summer for geographical reasons. Posh will surely still be interested but will he reconsider given the contrasting fortunes of the sides so far this season? Perhaps.

Statistical Breakdown: League Appearances: 20   Goals: 5   Assists: 4   Big Chances Created: 3

Key Passes per 90: 1.2   Successful Dribbles per 90: 0.6 (50%)   Shots per 90: 2.6

Passes in Opposition half per 90: 15.5 (70%)   Pass Accuracy: 77%   Touches per 90: 52.6

Ground Duels Won: 45.4%   Tackles per 90: 1.5 (63%)   Interceptions per 90: 0.8

Player Report: One of the standout midfield players in League One this season. Classy on the ball and does good work off it, he has shone brightly in a Rochdale side who play a style of passing football more extreme than any other side in the division. Camps has primarily operated as a ‘10’ or right sided attacking midfielder this season but can also play in a deep lying midfielder role or as an ‘8’ and his versatility would give Fergie options to make changes both within and between formations. Camps is a good and intelligent passer, takes up clever positions in between lines, would suit the high press Posh employed at times at the start of the season and gets regular shots away.

Potential Signing Rating: 10/10. Has proven that he is an outstanding League One midfielder who would suit Posh’s style of play. If Maddison were to leave, Posh should make signing Camps a top priority.


Although known primarily as a

The Unlikely

Scott Fraser (Burton Albion)
Profile: Age: 24  Height: 183-185cm  Build: Slim  Nationality: Scotland
Availability: Currently a key player for a Burton side sat 16th in the table and unlikely to be involved in a scrap at either end of the table. Would possibly been keen on a move to a promotion chaser, and Burton may therefore consider offers for a player who could potentially leave on a free in the summer.

Value: Moved to Burton on a free from Dundee United in the summer of 2018 following the end of his contract. Transfermrkt value him at £270k and were it not for his contract expiring in the summer Fraser would cost at least three to four times that. Hard to value without knowing his willingness to sign a new contract, however £250k-£500k may be enough should Burton be looking to cash in on one of their prized assets rather than risk losing him on a free in six months.

Likelihood: 3/10. There have been no strong rumours linking the player to the club although it is understood he may have been on Posh’s radar when he moved from Dundee United to Burton. Should Posh be forced to sell Marcus Maddison then he may be considered as a potential replacement. Posh may also decide to make a move should it become apparent that Burton are willing to consider offers. At 24 he fits the player profile age wise of players Posh like to sign as there is still considerable resale value. If Posh are in the market for Fraser, it would make sense to move in January as a number of clubs are likely to be sniffing around when his contract expires in the summer. A potential stumbling block could become apparent if a Championship side joins the hunt for his signature.

Statistical Breakdown: League Appearances: 17   Goals: 4   Assists: 5   Big Chances Created: 6 

Key Passes per 90: 3.1   Successful Dribbles per 90: 2 (68%)   Shots per 90: 2.2

Passes in Opposition half per 90: 25.4 (72%)   Pass Accuracy: 80%   Touches per 90: 62

Ground Duels Won: 47.8%   Tackles Per 90: 1.3 (62%)    Interceptions per 90: 0.4

Player Report: Primarily a left footed goal scoring number 8 who can also play as a wide midfielder on either flank or as a ‘10’. He would give Fergie options in either the diamond (either side or tip) or in a 3-4-1-2 (centre mid or ‘10’). He put in a performance as good as any away player this season at London Road and this may count in his favour as Posh look for midfield recruits in the January window. An excellent passer (he has made more key passes than any other League One player at an overall pass accuracy of 80%) and dribbler, he is capable of breaking lines through both his ball carrying and progressive passing. Like many others in the Posh squad he possesses a goal threat from both long shots and free kicks. One stylistic question mark may be that, as a primarily attack minded midfielder, whether he can offer the required defensive contribution as a right/left sided midfielder in a diamond?

Potential Signing Rating: 9/10. A proven League One star. If he’s available, Posh should do everything in their power to sign him. Work out of possession is the only question mark.




Ryan Broom (Cheltenham Town)
Profile: Age: 23  Height: 177cm  Build: Medium  Nationality: Wales

Availability: Cheltenham have been League Two’s surprise automatic promotion candidates this season and are unlikely to want to let their top assister and goal scorer leave in January. That said Cheltenham are not a particularly large side and would struggle to keep the player should his head be turned by the opportunity to player at a higher level.

Value: Transfermrket have no listed market value for him, but given his age, goal contributions this season and the fact he has 18 months left on his contract a fee in the region of £300k-500k plus sell on clause seems reasonable.

Likelihood: 4/10. Fits the profile of a young, promising and lower league player for Posh to develop. One would imagine the player will be keen to move and that Cheltenham would struggle to turn down a hefty transfer fee for a player they got on a free 18 months ago. His name has also been mooted in the press, but Darragh has denied the link, hence his low likelihood score.

Statistcal Breakdown: League Appearances: 20   Goals: 6   Assists: 5   Big Chances Created: 7

Key Passes per 90: 1   Successful Dribbles per 90: 1.1 (70%)   Shots per 90: 1.4

Passes in Opposition half per 90: 14.2 (68%)   Pass Accuracy: 77%   Touches per 90: 47

Ground Duels Won: 42.3%   Tackles per 90: 1 (53%)   Interceptions per 90: 0.4

Player Report: Broom is enjoying an excellent season in League Two with Cheltenham Town having moved there as a free agent in May 2018 after being released by Bristol Rovers where he failed to regularly break into the starting  XI. A goal scoring midfielder who doubles up as a creator, Broom is adept at carrying the ball out of defence and breaking lines by dribbling past opponents. He would likely be expected increase his defensive output at Posh (especially if he were to play on the right of a diamond) although his work rate is impressive and he is quick across the ground in the press. His dribbling and forward passing are also likely to appeal to Darren Ferguson. 

Potential Signing Rating: 7.5/10. A player who has a number of positive attributes and would be excellent for Posh in possession. Works hard off the ball but does he win it back often enough to play on the side of the diamond?



Ryan Wintle (Crewe Alexandra)
Profile: Age: 22   Height: 165cm   Build: Medium   Nationality: England

Availability: Crewe are currently in the thick of a League Two promotion battle and Wintle has started each of their 20 league games thus far. Crewe won’t want to lose a key player mid way through the season, but, as with other League Two sides in this list, would they be able to turn down a sizeable offer?

Value: Crewe have a very real shot at promotion this season so won’t let him go cheap, was tied down to a longer contract last summer so £400k-£750k + sell on clause may be required to prize him away from Crewe.

Likelihood: 3/10. Fits the bill both in terms of style of play and player profile, a summer move may be more likely for the Crewe academy graduate, although there will likely be large interest from others.

Statistical Breakdown: League Appearances: 20   Goals: 2   Assists: 3   Big Chances Created: 5

Key Passes per 90: 0.8   Successful Dribbles per 90: 0.3 (75%)   Shots per 90: 1.3

Passes in Opposition half per 90: 22.8 (74%)   Pass Accuracy: 83%   Touches per 90: 70.2

Ground Duels Won: 67.9%   Tackles per 90: 1.9 (86%)   Interceptions per 90: 0.9

Player Report: An excellent stylistic fit having played in an expansive, possession based Crewe side. Operates primarily as a deep lying playmaker/screen where Posh currently lack cover behind Reed. Much like Reed, Wintle is not afraid to spray long passes across the pitch, and averages an impressive 7.6 accurate long passes per game at an 66% success rate. His passing range is as good as anyone in this list and he always looks to get on the ball. Wintle does not carry the ball as frequently as others profiled instead choosing to move the ball on in one or two touches.

Potential Signing Rating: 8/10. An talented young player with huge potential. The only gamble would be that he has only played for one club and would command a rather large up front fee for a League Two player.



Oliver Norburn (Shrewsbury Town)
Profile: Age: 27   Height: 185cm   Build: Medium   Nationality: England/Grenada

Availability: Tied down to a long term (June 2022) contract at Shrewbury. That being said Shrewsbury are unlikely to be going up or down this year so they may be tempted to cash in on one of their most valuable assets.

Value: Should theoretically be close to the peak of his career and is most certainly in the form of his life. £500K-£800K seems about right.

Likelihood: 1/10. A wild card added into this list because, well, he’s an excellent League One midfielder. Does not fit Posh’s usual signing profile, but then neither did Anthony Grant in 2017.

Statistical Breakdown: League Appearances: 13   Goals: 2   Assists: 0   Big Chances Created: 0

Key Passes per 90: 0.9   Successful Dribbles per 90: 0.6 (75%)   Shots per 90: 1.2

Passes in opposition half per 90: 21.9 (73%)   Pass Accuracy: 80%   Touches per 90: 59.5

Ground Duels Won: 62.6%   Tackles per 90: 3.1 (76%)   Interceptions per 90: 1.7

Player Report: A former Chelsea and Leicester youth team player, Norburn is slowly rebuilding his career having dropped down to the National league between 2015-2018. Norburn can operate as either an ‘8’ or a ‘6’ in the heart of midfield. He marries good technical ability on the ball with tenacity and aggression off it and has picked up five yellow cards in just 13 league games this season. Hard to think of a player better suited to a right sided midfield role in the diamond, and would make a fine partner for Louis Reed in a midfield two.

Potential Signing Rating: 7/10. Great fit ability and style wise. However at 27 does not have the usual resale value of typical Posh targets.




Potential Premier League Loans
Reports on the following players are slightly shorter, however they are all likely to be available on loan and have impressed in either the EFL Trophy, Carabao Cup, Europa League or PL2 this season.

James Garner (Manchester United)
18 year old box-to-box midfielder who is highly thought of at Manchester United. One of just four academy players to be included on Man United’s first team pre-season tour and has started three Europa League matches this season. Garner has an excellent engine which would suit the diamond formation, is a neat and tidy passer (90% pass accuracy in EL this season) with a good passing range and offers decent defensive output. Remains to be seen if Man United would choose to keep him involved in the first team set up or try to give him more senior first team exposure.


Billy Gilmour (Chelsea)
An outstanding young talent with vast technical ability. At just 18 years old he started both Carabao Cup games this season, including the 2-1 defeat to Manchester United and has twice come on as a late substitute in the Premier League.  An excellent dribbler and passer, his vision, intelligence and technique would likely stand out at League One level. Might struggle in a midfield role in a diamond given the defensive demands, but could well be a replacement for Maddison should he leave. Two major question marks are whether Frank Lampard wants to involve him more with the first team, and whether any Championship sides would come in for him.


Armando Shashoua (Tottenham Hotspur)
19 year old attacking midfielder who has impressed in the EFL Trophy racking up a goal, eight key passes and creating one big chance across three appearances. An intelligent and progressive passer with a tactical understanding in the final third well beyond his years, would likely only be a target were Maddison to leave.  


Elliot Watt (Wolverhampton Wanderers)
A holding midfielder with an outstanding passing range, he could be brought in as either competition for Reed or to play alongside him in a 3-4-1-2. At 19 years old he’s another who benefited from appearing int the EFL Trophy, he averaged a scarcely believavle 18.25 long pass attempts per game, although his tackle success rate of 40% in that competition would be a worry. It is also debatable whether having Watt, Reed and Maddison all in the same side spraying long passes would make for cohesive team performances given how frequently Posh would concede possession.


Nathan Markelo (Everton)
Like Garner he possesses the work rate and stamina to excel on the side of a diamond midfield. His ability to cover ground is outstanding and makes life much easier for his teammates. Rarely gives the ball away and impactful in both boxer, would be an excellent addition to this current Posh squad.

Angel Gomes (Manchester United)
Alongside Garner, Gomes was included in the first team pre-season tour and has found first team exposure featuring in their Europa League side. Can be deployed as a ‘10’ or as a wide attacking midfielder, he is at his best in a central role. An intelligent passer especially in tight areas, his experience as a wide player and ability to drift wide to deliver crosses would make him the ideal short-term replacement for Maddison should he depart in January. Gomes possesses excellent close control and is an accomplished dribbler. The biggest question is whether he would drop down to League One level for game time, a move to a Championship side may therefore be more likely. There is also the small issue of interest from some of Europe's top sides which may thwart any potential loan move.



Ones for Future Windows
I won’t go into too much details with the names below in this piece as it has already gone on long enough, however below are some names to follow who I will cover in more detail at a later date. Players in this section are either injured, unlikely to be available in this window, or not quite ready to hold down a first team place at Posh. They are all however, exciting young talents who may be of interest either on loan or permanently in future windows.

Liam Walsh, 22 (Coventry City)


Jordan Gibson, 21 (Bradford City)


Joe Morrell, 22 (Bristol City, on loan at Lincoln City )


Jack Aitchison, 19 (Celtic, on loan at Forest Green Rovers)


Max Sanders, 20 (Brighton & Hove Albion, on loan at AFC Wimbledon)


Joe Pritchard, 23 (Accrington Stanley)

Monday, December 16, 2019

Why Posh Should Stick with a 3-4-1-2 Formation for the Rest of the Season


Darren Ferguson suggested after the Portsmouth game that he switched formation as he believed a 3-4-1-2 shape better suited the players he had at his disposal given the players missing through injury. I would take that logic a step further and suggest that even if/when everyone is back fit and available, the 3-4-1-2 formation is still the best fit for both the players and the challenges Posh will face against other sides in League One this season.



Why the 3-4-1-2 Best Suits Posh’s Players

To a man it is hard to think of a player who is not better suited to the 3-4-1-2 formation employed against both Portsmouth and Bolton when compared to the diamond. At the back Beevers’ key frailties, namely a lack of pace and struggles defending 1v1 are far less exposed in the middle of a back three than they are as a left sided centre back in a back four. Moreover, when in possession, having two ball playing defenders either side of him greatly lessens the passing demands placed on, something he has never looked comfortable with in a back four this season.

Playing in a three should also suit his regular centre back partner Frankie Kent, who has all the attributes (decent pace, good in possession, progressive passing, ball carrying) to thrive in a wide centre back role. The only downside being as a right footer playing on the left hand side he does occasionally have to cut back inside onto his right.

At right centre back Mason has played excellently. His comfort on the ball being perfect for the role while he has also not been afraid to make over/underlapping runs beyond his wing back. Defensively his occasional rashness in the tackle is somewhat mitigated by having an extra player to help defend wide areas. Posh also have another ideal candidate in Josh Knight (when fit again) to fulfil this role, provided Fergie does not want him in central midfield.

If Fergie does intend to persist with a back three, do not be surprised to see Posh dip into the January transfer market for a central defender, most likely one who is a natural fit on the left of a back three.
Playing with wing backs also suits both Ward and Butler, two players who at times struggled to adjust to the demands of the diamond. At left wing back Butler is now occupying the same role where he performed best last season for Newport County. He is beginning to demonstrate the sort of form that convinced Posh to sign in the summer, benefiting from the greater freedom to bomb forward, playing in a higher start position and slightly reduced defensive demands. Butler has attempted an average of 5 crosses per match over the past two matches, compared to an average of just 2.9 per 90 minutes prior to the Portsmouth match.

The right wing back role also seems a far more natural fit than either right back, or on either side of a midfield diamond, for Ward. From this position he can utilise his utilise his impressive work rate and pace to get up and down the right flank. This was evidenced against Bolton whereby Ward won 5 of his 6 ground duels, attempted 6 crosses, made 2 successful dribbles and 3 crosses, all of which were significantly higher than his seasonal averages per 90 minutes.

Furthermore, should Posh wish to employ a more attacking game plan, both Dembele and Kanu, two pacey, skilful and exciting players, should have more opportunities to get on the pitch in a 3-4-1-2 than they do in a diamond.

In midfield having three centre backs allows Louis Reed to receive the ball in more advanced positions. Whereas in the diamond he would typically either drop into the defensive line or receive the ball in front of the opposition’s highest pressing line, against both Bolton and Portsmouth he has been able to receive the ball 10-15 yards higher, behind the opposition’s highest defensive line. This has enabled more frequent ball progression from defence as Reed has been able to collect split passes from his defenders in the gap between the opposition attack and midfield. Playing in a double pivot also enabled Reed to drift from his central position to receive the ball in wider areas, as demonstrated when he moved to the right flank before delivering a pin point ball for the goal against Bolton. We can see the impact this higher position has had on Reed’s attacking passing output, averaging 2.5 key passes per game against Portsmouth and Bolton, compared to just 0.7 key passes per game across 16 League One matches prior to the Portsmouth match.

The change in shape has also allowed for the accommodation of the once exiled Alex Woodyard. Although not having the necessary qualities to fulfil any of the demanding midfield roles in the diamond, Woodyard has done well on his return to the side in his new role. Although probably not a starter when others are fit he is now a useful squad player, giving Posh greater depth than they previously appeared to have.

Whether it is Boyd or Knight who regularly partners Reed in midfield both should benefit from having to do less lateral coverage of the pitch. When on either side of the diamond the demands, both in attack and defence are huge, as the players are expected to operate simultaneously as wide and central midfielders. Boyd especially should find greater freedom to express himself going forwards, while the shape may also provide an opportunity to more easily bled exciting youngster Kyle Barker into the first team.

With Posh looking to recruit at least one additional midfielder in January, playing a 3-4-1-2 rather than a diamond would increase the pool of talent they would be able to select from. More potential signing would be able to fit into the new system, potentially allowing Posh to sign a higher calibre of player rather than being limited to one who can adjust to the demands of the diamond.

While the change in shape does not make a fundamental difference to the three attacking players, there will be minor benefits. The ‘10’, whether it be Maddison when fit, or Kanu/Tasdemir/Boyd deputising, will not be required to drift wide as often. Maddison especially is given a free role in possession, with license to drift wide and has done so to great effect, at times though Posh would have been better suited to him occupying central areas between the lines more regularly. The extra attacking width provided by the wing backs will allow Maddison to stay centrally more often, while when he does drift wide he will now have greater support in wide attacking areas.

Up front Eisa and Toney should benefit from receiving more passes from a slightly reduced distance from Posh’s best passer in Reed, as evidenced for the goal against Bolton. Moreover, playing with wing backs will allow Posh to put in more crosses from advanced positions, situations which created both goals against Portsmouth last weekend and that both forwards should thrive on.



Why it helps Address Weaknesses in Attack and Defence

In defence Posh have looked most susceptible when defending wide areas. Sides that attacked with speed down the flanks, switched play effectively or allowed their fullbacks to get forward caused Posh no end of problems. Posh’s fullbacks would frequently find themselves isolated or overloaded, with Boyd and Knight simply unable to cover the necessary ground to provide adequate support, especially when the ball was switched from one side to the other.

The 3-4-1-2 addresses some of these issues. With Posh effectively dropping into a back five to defend they have greater lateral pitch coverage in defence, leaving less space in the wide areas to exploit while the two pivots and three centre backs maintains their strength when defending central areas (before Posh had five players central defensively with two centre backs, a ‘6’ and two ‘8’s, now they still have five but with three centre backs and two ‘6/8’s).

Moreover, having an extra centre back allows for greater support of the wing back in wide areas while also providing an extra man in the box to defend crosses, which has at times been a real weakness for Posh. Finally a back five is harder to expose on the counter than a four, and this could be important with Posh occasionally looking vulnerable when playing against direct or long ball sides.

In attack Posh’s biggest weakness has been breaking down massed, organised defences. Although Posh carried a huge attacking threat in central areas and would punish sides that left gaps either in or between their defence and midfield, they struggled to manoeuvre and penetrate sides in deep blocks. The lack of natural width made moving the ball at a high tempo difficult due to the limited passing options for the player on the ball. As such Posh’s play would often slow, their ball progression suffer and they were unable to pull the opposition out of shape. Attacking wing backs should help address this flaw, provide attacking width and a wider passing radius for the player in possession. This should allow Posh more potential to outmanoeuvre defences and break down stubborn opposition. It is also noteworthy that all three of Posh’s goals against Portsmouth and Bolton came from wide areas, with two of the goals being created by an advanced cross from the left wing-back position.



Concluding Thoughts

No formation is perfect, if it were every side would play it. However, from the evidence and performances this season I think it’s becoming apparent that this Posh side is better in a 3-4-1-2 than it is in a diamond. A final point I would make in support of the new shape is their record in the system this season. Posh have only started two league games in a 3-4-1-2, gaining an excellent draw at Portsmouth and beating Bolton at home. Prior to that they had switched to the shape on four occasions. They have once switched to it when level, changing shape early against Gillingham at 0-0 and improving significantly to come away with a 2-1 win. On three occasions they have changed when behind. Although the game against Doncaster was already a lost cause, Posh improved after changing shape against Coventry (drawing 2-2 from 1-0 down) and Blackpool (eventually losing 4-3 having switched at 3-2 but looking better none-the-less). Notably, in none of these six matches have Posh conceded more goals than they have scored, nor has their level of performance ever dropped. Although this sample size is small, it adds to the weight of argument in support of the new system.
Although in the natural world diamonds may be forever, at Posh this season there is a strong case to be made that they should not be!

Monday, December 2, 2019

Posh Team of The Decade


2010-2019: A Brief Overview
As decades go it’s been a pretty good one for Posh. A miserable start to the decade saw Posh relegated back to League One from the championship having had three different managers in the opening four months of the decade. Darren Ferguson returned midway through the next season to oversee an immediate return to the Championship through a thrilling playoff run and then ensured that Posh stayed up in the second tier of English football for this first time in the club’s history. The next season saw a heart breaking relegation as Posh went down following an 89th minute Mile Jedinak header on the final day of the season. Posh were relegated on 54 points, the most ever for a relegated side, and had produced a fine run of form in the second half of the season having lost the first seven games of the campaign.

That defeat was crushing for the players, owner, manager and fans alike. In truth the main narrative of the second half of the decade has been Posh’s failure to return to the second tier. Posh have failed to make the playoffs since 2014 despite frequently flattering to deceive in the early stages of the season. That same 2013/14 season saw Posh win their first ever national cup, with a 3-1 win over Chesterfield at Wembley in the then Johnston Paint Trophy. By comparison, the 2014/15 season to date has felt like a relatively barren spell.

That said, as the decade draws to a close let’s celebrate the highs. With two seasons spent in the second tier of English football and a cup win the current decade has been arguably the best in the club’s history. There have been some truly scintillating performances (2-0 vs MK Dons in the 2010/11 playoff second leg), memorable cup upsets (3-1 away to Aston Villa) and great players who will be remembered fondly for years to come.

But out of everyone to play for the Posh this decade, who makes it into the team of the decade? I have based selection on two criteria. The first being pure ability, the second impact at the club. The players have been fitted into an adapted 4-1-2-1-2 formation, which in truth is more accurately represented as a very attacking 4-1-3-2. The shape, rather than being designed to win matches, has been selected as the best way to include as many of the standout performers as possible into the XI.


GoalkeeperBobby Olejnik
Tough one to call this for all the wrong reasons. Since Mark Tyler’s initial departure there have not been many to wear the number 1 jersey with distinction. Bobby gets my nod as a very reliable, ‘traditional’ keeper. Good shot stopper, commanded his area well and a vocal organiser of his defence. His limitations with ball at feet was eventually his undoing.

Honourable mentions:
Not many. Joe Lewis was the longest occupier of the number 1 spot and had all the attributes to be a top keeper but never fulfilled his potential at Posh. Too many errors and seemingly brittle confidence often belied his impressive physical and technical attributes. He is currently enjoying the best spell of his career at Aberdeen. Joe Day only made four appearances in four years at Posh but his performances for Newport County last season suggest he may have been one who got away.  


Right Back – Mark Little
The marauding, exciting, energetic Little gets the nod at right back. Had a big impact at Posh as his attacking tendencies were vital to a side which often employed a narrow midfield diamond during his spell at the club. The two main criticisms of Little were that often his end ball did not match his build up play, while he often relied on his pace to bail him out at the back. Posh have never come close to replacing him since his departure.  My personal highlight of his time at Posh came when he tripped over his own legs two yards outside the box following a trademark burst forward at Stadium MK, only for Posh to then be given a vital penalty whilst down to ten men and 3-1 down in the Playoff first leg.

Honourable mentions:
Technically Russell Martin was only a Peterborough player for four days of the decade (and even then he was on loan at Norwich), but he would have been a near certainty for this side had Mark Cooper not taken the bizarre decision to offload him to Norwich after quickly deciding that he wasn’t up to the demands of Championship football. A regular starter across four Premier League seasons and 29 Scotland caps says all you need to know about that call.


Left Back – Tommy Rowe
The versatile former skipper Rowe slots into this side at left back, which was the position he was arguably most suited for at Posh where, like Little, his attacking tendencies provided vital width given Posh’s narrow midfield. A very good technical player, who could also play left midfield or left wing, he married his ability on the ball with an unquestionable work ethic and tactical intelligence. Was a player you could trust to consistently put in 7/10 performances.

Honourable mentions:
Hard to think of many left backs who had a major impact at the club so Callum Elder gets a mention as the best left back to play at Posh throughout the decade. His spell at Posh sadly only lasted 21 games.


Centre Backs – Ryan Bennett and Gabriel Zakuani
Bennett is easily the best defender to play for Posh this decade. Made exactly 100 appearances during a three season spell before moving to Norwich for a reported £3.2m. Strong in the air, a good tackler and confident with ball at feet, he is every bit the modern centre back. Also possesses a booming long throw which Posh never properly utilised. It is currently no surprise to see him currently excelling in the Premier League with Wolves.

Zakuani gets the nod to partner Bennett. Zakuani was never happy when asked to pass the ball but just LOVED defending. Strong and athletic he always wore his heart on his sleeve, was a terrific tackler and would battle from minute one to the final whistle. Made over 250 appearances for the club split across two spells, a firm fan favourite.

Honourable mentions:
Ryan Tafazolli was arguably Posh’s next best centre back during this period. Standing 6ft5 he was dominant in the air and won the fans player of the year award for the 2016/17 season. The decision not to renew his contract this summer remains a surprising one. Michael Bostwick was another whose commitment could never be called into question. Signed as a tough tackling midfielder but spent a large part of his Posh career at centre back. Now perhaps best remembered for his pass to a steward in a high visibility jacket bombing it down the wing.


Holding Midfield – Grant McCann
Who else? McCann has been captain, assistant manager and manager of the side this decade. McCann joined Posh having played primarily as an attacking midfielder but made the deep lying playmaker role his own. Had a magic wand for a left foot which was capable of moments of exquisite beauty. Surely the best dead ball taker ever to regularly grace London Road and scored in every game of Posh’s 2010/11 playoff run. No one else has come close to touching his impact from central midfield.

Honourable Mentions:
Combative midfielder Charlie Lee was perhaps next closest, but not particularly close, to selection. Won club player of the year twice in the previous decade and never let anyone down as he consistently put in performances full of effort, passion and crunching tackles. Chris Forrester was the closest Posh got to finding a like-for-like replacement for McCann. At his best an incredibly classy operator and tidy passer, his form sadly took a nose dive following an impressive start. Jake Livermore had an excellent, but brief, loan spell with the side at the start of the decade. He may well be the best central midfielder to have worn a Posh shirt in the last decade, but cannot be included as he only played nine games for the Posh.


Left Midfield – George Boyd
Has reinvented himself first as a hardworking wide midfielder and now as an all action number ‘8’ during the latter stages of his career. Throughout his first spell at Posh he was an exciting, skilful and at times mesmeric attacking winger, who would surely have gone even further in the game had he been blessed with even a modicum of pace. Christened the ‘White Pele’ by Stevenage fans and it was a mantra adopted by those who watched him at Posh. An absolute joy to behold when on form.

Honourable Mentions:
Martin Samuelsen wowed and dazzled in flashes across two loan spells. A player of huge technical ability, he never performed as consistently as one would like but his hypnotic dribble and goal away to Sheffield United will live long in the memory. Now 22 and in his sixth loan spell, surely needs to find a new permanent home to fulfil his lofty potential.


Right Midfield – Marcus Maddison
The most gifted player in the current side by a stretch. At times he has been a frustrating performer in a Posh shirt where his performances too frequently failed to match his undoubted talent. Has had the best start to the season of any player this decade however, with nine goals and six assists coming from just 17 league games. It’s a shame that it looks like his spell at Posh may soon come to an end with his contract expiring in the summer.

Honourable Mentions:
Welsh winger Gwion Edwards had two fine seasons at Posh before moving to Portman Road, although injuries robbed him of the chance of having a truly stellar 2017/18 campaign. Current squad member Joe Ward is a consistent performer capable of extraordinary goals but struggling to find a regular starting spot in a system which does not suit him.


Number ‘10’ – Lee Tomlin
It’s fair to say that this XI has traded defensive solidity for flair, creativity and attacking talent and no one in this side would do less off the ball than Lee Tomlin. That said he was a master creator and goal scorer on it. Tomlin started life as a central striker but truly excelled at the tip of the midfield diamond. His vision and eye for a pass is unparalleled by anyone in this hypothetical side full of creative talents. Tomlin was also tough to knock off the ball, an excellent dribbler and tidy finisher. Never fully committed himself to the fitness side of the game at Posh, but looks to be in the best shape of his life currently at Cardiff City. Was sadly way off match fitness during his loan spell at the side last season.

Honourable Mentions:
Paul Taylor was probably the best of the rest at ‘10’ (Maddison who is already in this XI aside). An excellent dribbler with a decent goal scoring record, although his decision making and ability to see/play the final ball would often infuriate as they did not match his technical skills. Like many to return his second spell at the club failed to match the heights of his first.


Centre Forwards – Craig Mackail-Smith and Dwight Gayle
The hardest position to pick due to Posh having so many outstanding candidates for a starting spot up front. Mackail-Smith may not be the best striker to play for Posh this decade but he is definitely the one who had the biggest impact. His 27 league goals were vital to Posh’s immediate return to the Championship and, like McCann, he scored in all three play-off matches. Was always the hardest working player on the pitch and the best defensive forward to play for Posh this decade. Both his technical and finishing abilities came on leaps and bounds during his first spell at the club. He was never the same player following injuries in subsequent loan spells but scored 104 goals for the club in 233 appearances.

The decision to include Gayle will likely be the most hotly debated selection in this XI, especially as he spent less than nine months at the club. He gets the nod based on two criteria. Firstly, he performed the best of any forward who played for Posh in the Championship, scoring 13 goals in 29 appearances. Secondly, he has achieved the most at the highest level since leaving Posh. Possessing excellent movement, pace and a superb finisher, 18 Premier League goals, 46 Championship goals and a £10m move to Newcastle since leaving mean he can reasonably lay claim to being the best forward to pass through Peterborough’s impressive production line.

Honourable Mentions:
So many given Posh’s aptitude for spotting and developing attacking talent this decade. Were we doing a team of the century thus far Aaron Mclean would be in with a huge shout, however much of his best work came before the turn of the decade. Current front man Ivan Toney is perhaps the most complete forward to play for Posh this decade and will surely go on to big things, but Gayle’s Premier League track record meant to pipped him to the starting spot. Both Britt Assombalonga and Jack Marriott had 30+ goal seasons for Posh and have both done better in the Championship since leaving than Mackail-Smith managed, but neither had the same impact on the club as Mackail-Smith. Conor Washington may also have had a shot of inclusion had he seen out the 2015/16 season, but his January move to QPR derailed Posh’s good start.


Conclusion
So there you have it, my Posh side of the decade is complete. Some players pick themselves, while other selections I’m sure will be hotly contested. Next up will be my Posh anti-XI of the decade, a side which sadly has a number of candidates to pick from.

Monday, November 11, 2019

Should Diamonds Be Forever - 5 Possible Formations Analysed


Posh, despite sitting third in the League One table and currently being the top scorers across the top four divisions of English football, have struggled for both consistent performances and results in recent weeks. Arguably the performances, if not results, have dipped since a string of excellent performances against Sunderland, MK Dons and Rochdale. However, it is an eight day spell which has most alarmed some fans, with defeats against Blackpool and Shrewsbury being followed by a laboured draw against the side currently second bottom in the football league.
As such I will ask the question of whether Fergie should stick with his favoured diamond formation, or switch to one of the alternatives provided in the article.

4-1-2-1-2 Midfield Diamond

Possible First XI (where no clear first choice multiple options are included)

Pym
Mason/Thompson/Ward  Kent    Beevers    Blake-Tracy/Butler

Reed
Knight                     Boyd
 Maddison

Toney    Eisa

Record This season
Posh have started 14 of their 17 league games in this shape. They have an excellent record when starting in this system W8 D4 L2 PPG2. This would equate to 92 points over the course of the season which would nearly always guarantee promotion. However, this record might be slightly inflated by the fact that Posh have switched shape in game in five of those 14 matches. They have switched shape three times in a losing position (drawing one and losing two) and twice when level in games (winning both). Thus, if the record was taken at the point of these switches it would read P14 W6 D5 L3 PPG1.6, a record which if continued over the course of the season would typically we good enough for a playoff finish. It is obviously impossible to say for sure how those matches would have ended had Posh not changed formation. However, it was clear in most the change of formation was accompanied by an improved performance.

Pros
The diamond has long been Ferguson’s go to formation at both Posh and Doncaster. At times it has been a scintillating success, being the driver behind high-scoring promotions and Posh have produced some stunning performances in this shape against Sunderland, MK Dons and Rochdale.
It is also a shape which allows Posh to get their attacking trio of Maddison, Eisa and Toney on the pitch at the same time without playing any out of position. Considering that trio have scored 33 league goals between them this season it is a huge benefit to be able to get them all on the pitch at the same time.

Furthermore, it is a formation tailor made to counter teams that play an open and expansive style. It allows Posh to focus their build up play across 6 (keeper included) vertical lines, giving them great options to exploit spaces left by the opposition, especially in central areas. It is also a formation that allows Posh to get creative players at both points of midfield, with Reed and Maddison both excellent progressive passers at League One level.

Cons
As with any formation it is not without its flaws. In a diamond the primary drawback can be the narrowness of the midfield. This can have issues in both attacking and defensive phases. When defending Posh are susceptible to sides who attack at pace out wide. The large distances the two number 8s have to cover mean that sides can overload and isolate Posh’s fullbacks. Posh have been particularly susceptible to switches of play this season, something that Blackpool exploited with great effect.

In attack Posh have found it difficult to break down packed, deep lying defences, with the lack of width making it difficult for Posh to stretch and manoeuvre mass defences to create space for their front three to thrive. When posh have had the most success in this formation historically, they have had quick attacking fullbacks (e.g. Tommy Rowe, Mark Little) who can provide attacking width. On this note, the inclusion of Joe Ward at right back may help provide Posh with more attacking width.
Verdict

A great option against possession based sides but Posh need a different strategy when playing against deep lying defences. Fergie has been flexible with his formations in game but it may be time to begin picking starting formations based on opposition strengths, weaknesses and style. Toney’s suspension for Posh’s next league game could provide a catalyst to try something different.

Flat 4-4-2

Possible First XI

Pym
Mason/Thompson/Ward         Kent    Beevers               Blake-Tracy/Butler

Maddison/Ward    Knight/Woodyard   Reed/Boyd    Dembele/Boyd/Maddison

Toney      Eisa

Record This Season  
Appalling. Played three (regardless of what Ferguson claims in practice Oxford and Fleetwood was 4-4-2) lost three, and three tepid performances to boot.

Pros
Solves the issues regarding width in the diamond while still getting Maddison, Eisa and Toney on the pitch together. The formation also allows Posh to get players with pace and skill into wide areas should they wish.

Cons
Posh have really struggled in this formation with ball progression being a major worry. All three performances when Posh have lined up 4-4-2 have been poor and there is no reason to predict this changing in the near future.

Verdict
Tried it, there are better options, move on for now.

3-4-1-2

Possible First XI
Pym

Kent/Thompson/Mason/Bennett    Beevers/Kent/Bennett    Beevers/Blake-Tracy/Mason/Butler

Maddison/Ward            Knight/Woodyard   Boyd/Reed  Maddison/Butler/Blake-Tracy/Dembele

Maddison/Boyd

                                                          Toney     Eisa

Record This Season
Posh have spent a total of 188 minutes in this shape across four matches. In that time they have scored five and conceded three goals, winning 2-1 from a 0-0 score line against Gillingham and drawing 2-2 with Coventry from 1-0 behind. The switch to 3-4-1-2 did however not prevent Posh from succumbing to losses against Blackpool (3-2 down when switched, 4-3 at fulltime) and Doncaster (2-0 down when switched, 2-0 at fulltime). It has on the whole though lead to improved performances when utilised, especially in games Posh whereby were being overrun in wide areas defensively by direct, wing oriented attacks.

Pros
Having an extra body in midfield should help Posh to control possession and progress the ball more efficiently through the lines. At times Posh have found ball progression a challenge against packed and organised midfield units however the extra man in midfield and width should help Ferguson to implement the high tempo, short passing style he prizes.

The extra centre back should in theory provide greater defensive solidity, while the shape also provides Posh with more options laterally across the pitch in both attack and defence. This should help both when breaking down sides in a low block and also when defending against direct sides who play with width/attack down the wings. It also still allows for a number 10, meaning Posh can get a creative player in a largely free role behind the front two, creating an extra vertical line of attack thus allowing for greater options between opposition defensive lines. The formation may also be key to getting the best out of Butler who thrived in a left wing-back role for Newport.
Crucially, it allows Posh to keep Maddison, Toney and Eisa in the same positions they’ve currently occupied to great effect this season.

Cons
Posh lack a natural option for the third left-sided centre back. In an ideal world Kent would play on the right, with Beevers centrally and perhaps a pacier, ball carrying centre back on the left. Blake-Tracy, Mason and Butler may all be candidates for this role but none are naturals in that position. Josh Knight, although not a natural on the left hand side, may also be considered for this role, however there’s a good chance Fergie would want to use him as one of the two central midfielders. There is also a balancing act between getting players with a good attacking output in the wing-back roles without leaving the defence overly exposed in the opposite direction.

Verdict
An interesting option with potential to revisit later in season. Unlikely to be used in the next league game with Toney suspended, and probably requires defensive reinforcements in January before it can be considered Posh’s primary option. Definitely an option against direct sides and sides who Posh are struggling to break down.

4-2-3-1
Possible First XI
Pym
Mason/Ward/Thompson        Kent           Beevers                Blake-Tracy/Butler

Reed/Boyd    Knight/Woodyard

Ward/Maddison/Eisa            Maddison/Boyd          Maddison/Dembele

Eisa/Toney

Record This Season
Posh have spent a total of 41 minutes in this formation this season across two games. The 23 minutes they spent in this formation against Doncaster did little to change the game with Posh already 2-0 down. The 18 minutes against Lincoln on the other hand were blistering. With posh scoring twice to win 2-0 and Dembele’s pace and trickery proving the key to unlocking the Imps defence.
Pros
The prospect of having Maddison, Boyd and Dembele all lining up in advanced positions behind a proven goal scorer is tantalising. With Boyd in the 10 role and Maddison and Dembele out wide it is a trio of attackers who provide creativity, skill and a goal threat while Maddison and Dembele would provide pace out wide.

Posh also have an abundance of players who could play the double pivot role so it could become more defensive (combination of Reed, Woodyard, Knight) or progressive (combination of Boyd, Reed, Knight) depending on the opposition and demands of the game.

Also transfer argument for extra man in midfield and width in terms of possession and ball transitioning 3-4-1-2 here.

Cons
First and foremost it means leaving one of League One’s joint top scorers on the bench. This is a high risk strategy and would leave Fergie open to enormous levels of criticism should it backfire. Although Toney’s suspension does provide something of a free hit to experiment with this formation against Burton.

At the back end of last season Toney demonstrated he can play in a lone striker role in this exact formation to great effect however Eisa is unproven in this role. With Eisa leading the line on his own he would have to find a way of influencing the game more frequently, whether that be by using his pace to run in behind and stretch teams to create space between defence and midfield for the three behind him or by dropping deeper to link play and release space for the wide players in behind. In remains untested whether he can fulfil this role.

Verdict
Will surely be the go-to formation in Toney’s absence against Burton, success in that game will determine whether it is used in the future.

4-3-3
Possible First XI
Pym
Mason/Ward/Thompson        Kent           Beevers                Blake-Tracy/Butler

           Knight/Woodyard/Ward/Tasdemir            Reed         Boyd/Tasdemir/Ward/Burrows

Ward/Maddison/Eisa                                             Maddison/Dembele/Boyd

Eisa/Toney

Record This Season
Untried, untested

Pros
Similar to 4-2-3-1 in terms of width, extra body in midfield allowing ball progression. One benefit of the formation is that having the extra man in central midfield as opposed to an advanced 10 should somewhat lighten the defensive work load of the two advanced wide players allowing them more time to unleash their pace and trickery in the final third more often.

It also provides many options in terms of midfield rotation. Reed would likely perform the deep lying role as a 6 or 6/8, however either side of side of him there are options as Knight can play as a box-to-box 8, Woodyard as a ball winner, or Boyd and Tasdemir as more advanced midfielders in a 8/10 hybrid (think De Bruyne and Silva at Manchester City).

Cons
Obviously dropping one of Toney and Eisa (or shifting Eisa out wide) is a drawback considering there form. It also requires Posh to attack without an orthodox 10, which may impact on their attacking output. However, having creative or forward thinking midfielders in two of the three central midfield roles should somewhat counteract this potential limitation.

Verdict
Won’t be considered, but probably should be.

Conclusion

Darren Ferguson has shown far greater in-game tactical flexibility than in previous reigns which is a huge plus and has probably enabled Posh to gather more points than they would otherwise have done. However, he needs to show greater innovation in his pre-match strategies. The midfield diamond should not be completely abandoned, but nor should it be seen as a one-size-fits-all approach that it often appears to be. Against possession based sides it is effective in both providing defensive security in central areas and providing options to exploit gaps left by the opposition. Against sides who pack central areas defensively, and/or employ a direct, wing oriented attacking approach, Ferguson may have to consider one of the other solutions discussed above. There is nothing wrong with adjusting your approach to exploit the weaknesses and negate the strengths of the opposition, especially if you can do so while still getting your best players on the pitch in their best positions as often as possible.

Friday, November 8, 2019

Why Relentless Rodgers is Perfect Antidote to Foxes Malaise


Four seasons on from their shock title win Leicester find themselves 3rd in the Premier League table after 11 games, just two  points behind a Manchester City side who are one of the greatest to ever grace these shores and eight points behind current Champions League winners Liverpool. They can currently claim to be the ‘best of the rest’ among a pack of five or six sides with realistic Champions League hopes but no chance of toppling the divisions two standout sides.

Taking the above statement in isolation one would probably assume that it has been a relatively smooth ride since their 2015/16 glory, with Leicester consolidating themselves amongst the Premier League elite.

The real story is fascinating, tragic and far more complex than that. It is a story of managerial sackings, player complacency, key player sales, reported dressing room coups and the tragic loss of a hugely likeable owner.

Since their title triumph Leicester have recorded mid table finishes of 12th, 9th and 9th. In that time three managers have lost their job. First the charismatic and hugely entertaining Claudio Ranieri bit the dust, just nine months after he had guided the then relegation favourites to the most remarkable of titles, with the champion’s just one point above the Premier League relegation zone with 13 games remaining.

Ranieri’s assistant Craig Shakespeare took up the reigns, amid whispers that he was the true tactical inspiration behind Leicester’s title win with Ranieri merely the public figurehead. After initially overseeing an upturn in fortunes, Shakespeare lasted just eight month as he was unable to improve Leicester’s performances long term and left with the side in the relegation zone after eight matches of the 2017/18 season.

Shakespeare was replaced by Claude Puel, an appointment which failed to excite either the fan base or players. Again we see a similar story. An initial upturn in results and hugely respectable 9th place finish was accompanied by player unrest, disillusionment at Puel’s perceived ‘negative’ tactics and the manager’s departure less than a year and a half into his tenure.

They say getting to the summit is hard but staying there is much harder. It is no coincidence that only three managers: Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola have ever retained the Premier League Title. All three are relentless winners, never pausing for breath in their pursuit of the next trophy.

Ranieri, Shakespeare and Puel all had their strengths but the shared one fatal trait, an inability to motivate a talented group of players who had reached the summit but had no realistic opportunity to return there.

United with a sense of purpose to make history, as the usual suspects fell by the wayside Leicester’s group of previously unheralded misfits and bargain buys found a level of performance and consistency that was unimaginable at the start of the season. This was a side who had looked relegation certainties for much of the previous season before an extraordinary late run of 22 points from their final 9 games secured a survival which appeared almost as unlikely as the title winning season itself when Leicester were sat bottom on 19 points after 29 games going into April.

Having achieved the impossible, and in the process secured their place in club folklore as well as Premier League and world football history, the players’ performances nosedived as did results. Here was a group of unmotivated and uninspired players, happy to bask in the glow of their once in a lifetime achievement. Only when an unthinkable relegation threatened did the side achieve anything resembling their 2015/16 performance levels the following season.

A sense of malaise had swept the club, bumper contracts and endless levels of goodwill had made the players who wanted to stay, if not the manager, untouchable. Standards slipped and rather than being the catalyst which propelled Leicester into the stratosphere of the elite, the title win became a justification for mid table mediocrity. Leicester had achieved all they could, what was the point in pushing on if things would never get that good again?

This was a side which needed a spark to ignite it, to inspire to demand the excellence that shook the Premier League elite to its core. In February 2019 that catalyst for improvement arrived in the form of Brendan Rodgers.

Rodgers is a man who has a relentless obsession with excellence. He has an unlimited drive to seek that he ensures both himself, and his sides, are the best they can possibly be. So fixated with personal development is he that he learned both Spanish and Italian to enhance his job prospects. He is also the man which helped set the standards and philosophy that allowed a Swansea side to punch well above its weight for years after he had left.  

Rodgers’ relentless drive for excellence is simultaneously his greatest strength and also the trait which cost him potentially his career defining moment.

With Liverpool within touching distance of Manchester City in the race to be crowned 2013/14 Premier League Champions Rodgers’ side squandered a 3-0 lead against Crystal Palace to draw 3-3. His tunnel vision and fixation with chasing down city’s goal difference meant both he and his side lost sight of the bigger picture. The most important thing in that game was three points and to maintain pressure on Manchester City.

At 3-0 it was perfectly logical to pile forward, chase more goals and close the goal difference gap. But at 3-1 and especially 3-2, warning bells should have been ringing that the goal difference game was up and it was time to setup shop. In the heat of battle Rodgers’ relentless obsession with the perfect result did not let him settle for good enough and live to fight another day.

It is easy to lose sight of the big picture when one becomes fixated on smaller details. It is the same psychological phenomenon that has caused pilots to crash planes when fixated on wheel warning lights and are thus unaware that their fuel is quickly running dangerously low. Rodgers’s error was not on the same magnitude as this, but the same principles apply and when next in heat of battle (he was largely untested winning back-to-back titles at Celtic) it will be interesting to see if Rodgers has learnt from his mistake.

But what proved his undoing in that title run-in is now the exact same trait which has allowed him to revitalise his current side who had sleep walked into mediocrity following their greatest of triumphs.
At Leicester Rodgers inherited a talented, but under-performing squad. A group who had excelled when united behind a historic common goal, but had since let standards slip in the relatively mundane seasons which followed. It was a side unmotivated by the tiny carrot of a seventh placed finished, and which would only burst into life when whacked by the enormous stick in the guise potential relegation.

It is a side which needed to be challenged, needed a manager which unrelentingly high expectations to raise the ceiling of what could be achieved, to accept nothing less than the highest of standards in everything they do.

This is exactly what Rodgers has already achieved in his short time at Leicester. He forfeited the chance of a treble-treble with Celtic to take over a side where he believes a top four finish should be regarded as a realistic goal. By raising standards and expectations of what is achievable he has awoken this Leicester side from their malaise and revitalised the club. He is a perfectionist and the players have bought into his all-encompassing desire for improvement.

We have seen this relentless nature manifest itself on the pitch in the past 14 days. Teams do not typically win 9-0. Often when in the process of handing out a thrashing the winning side is inclined to sit off, relax, and conserve one’s energies for the challenges ahead. This is not something that Rodgers will allow this Leicester side to do. And the fact that they overcame a tricky trip to Palace in the following game speaks volumes for the culture Rodgers is fostering and the fact that players were not allowed to rest on their laurels following a record breaking win.

It takes an ambitious and brave manager to raise the bar of expectations. When setting expectations high it is often the manager who pays the price should they not be met. Fans and owners also tend to have short memories. And many managers have discovered that even if you were the one to initiate the climb this is not enough to save you should you then begin to fall.

Leicester may not qualify for the Champions League this season, they may not even finish in the top six. But one thing is for sure. Rodgers will accept nothing less than the pursuit of excellence from his players. If they fall short of his targets it will not be because they were allowed standards to slip. And the players will not be able to chuck a manager with the strength of character of Rodgers under the same bus that Ranieri found himself. If Rodgers and this Leicester side fail, they will fail while striving to be the best they can be.