Monday, November 11, 2019

Should Diamonds Be Forever - 5 Possible Formations Analysed


Posh, despite sitting third in the League One table and currently being the top scorers across the top four divisions of English football, have struggled for both consistent performances and results in recent weeks. Arguably the performances, if not results, have dipped since a string of excellent performances against Sunderland, MK Dons and Rochdale. However, it is an eight day spell which has most alarmed some fans, with defeats against Blackpool and Shrewsbury being followed by a laboured draw against the side currently second bottom in the football league.
As such I will ask the question of whether Fergie should stick with his favoured diamond formation, or switch to one of the alternatives provided in the article.

4-1-2-1-2 Midfield Diamond

Possible First XI (where no clear first choice multiple options are included)

Pym
Mason/Thompson/Ward  Kent    Beevers    Blake-Tracy/Butler

Reed
Knight                     Boyd
 Maddison

Toney    Eisa

Record This season
Posh have started 14 of their 17 league games in this shape. They have an excellent record when starting in this system W8 D4 L2 PPG2. This would equate to 92 points over the course of the season which would nearly always guarantee promotion. However, this record might be slightly inflated by the fact that Posh have switched shape in game in five of those 14 matches. They have switched shape three times in a losing position (drawing one and losing two) and twice when level in games (winning both). Thus, if the record was taken at the point of these switches it would read P14 W6 D5 L3 PPG1.6, a record which if continued over the course of the season would typically we good enough for a playoff finish. It is obviously impossible to say for sure how those matches would have ended had Posh not changed formation. However, it was clear in most the change of formation was accompanied by an improved performance.

Pros
The diamond has long been Ferguson’s go to formation at both Posh and Doncaster. At times it has been a scintillating success, being the driver behind high-scoring promotions and Posh have produced some stunning performances in this shape against Sunderland, MK Dons and Rochdale.
It is also a shape which allows Posh to get their attacking trio of Maddison, Eisa and Toney on the pitch at the same time without playing any out of position. Considering that trio have scored 33 league goals between them this season it is a huge benefit to be able to get them all on the pitch at the same time.

Furthermore, it is a formation tailor made to counter teams that play an open and expansive style. It allows Posh to focus their build up play across 6 (keeper included) vertical lines, giving them great options to exploit spaces left by the opposition, especially in central areas. It is also a formation that allows Posh to get creative players at both points of midfield, with Reed and Maddison both excellent progressive passers at League One level.

Cons
As with any formation it is not without its flaws. In a diamond the primary drawback can be the narrowness of the midfield. This can have issues in both attacking and defensive phases. When defending Posh are susceptible to sides who attack at pace out wide. The large distances the two number 8s have to cover mean that sides can overload and isolate Posh’s fullbacks. Posh have been particularly susceptible to switches of play this season, something that Blackpool exploited with great effect.

In attack Posh have found it difficult to break down packed, deep lying defences, with the lack of width making it difficult for Posh to stretch and manoeuvre mass defences to create space for their front three to thrive. When posh have had the most success in this formation historically, they have had quick attacking fullbacks (e.g. Tommy Rowe, Mark Little) who can provide attacking width. On this note, the inclusion of Joe Ward at right back may help provide Posh with more attacking width.
Verdict

A great option against possession based sides but Posh need a different strategy when playing against deep lying defences. Fergie has been flexible with his formations in game but it may be time to begin picking starting formations based on opposition strengths, weaknesses and style. Toney’s suspension for Posh’s next league game could provide a catalyst to try something different.

Flat 4-4-2

Possible First XI

Pym
Mason/Thompson/Ward         Kent    Beevers               Blake-Tracy/Butler

Maddison/Ward    Knight/Woodyard   Reed/Boyd    Dembele/Boyd/Maddison

Toney      Eisa

Record This Season  
Appalling. Played three (regardless of what Ferguson claims in practice Oxford and Fleetwood was 4-4-2) lost three, and three tepid performances to boot.

Pros
Solves the issues regarding width in the diamond while still getting Maddison, Eisa and Toney on the pitch together. The formation also allows Posh to get players with pace and skill into wide areas should they wish.

Cons
Posh have really struggled in this formation with ball progression being a major worry. All three performances when Posh have lined up 4-4-2 have been poor and there is no reason to predict this changing in the near future.

Verdict
Tried it, there are better options, move on for now.

3-4-1-2

Possible First XI
Pym

Kent/Thompson/Mason/Bennett    Beevers/Kent/Bennett    Beevers/Blake-Tracy/Mason/Butler

Maddison/Ward            Knight/Woodyard   Boyd/Reed  Maddison/Butler/Blake-Tracy/Dembele

Maddison/Boyd

                                                          Toney     Eisa

Record This Season
Posh have spent a total of 188 minutes in this shape across four matches. In that time they have scored five and conceded three goals, winning 2-1 from a 0-0 score line against Gillingham and drawing 2-2 with Coventry from 1-0 behind. The switch to 3-4-1-2 did however not prevent Posh from succumbing to losses against Blackpool (3-2 down when switched, 4-3 at fulltime) and Doncaster (2-0 down when switched, 2-0 at fulltime). It has on the whole though lead to improved performances when utilised, especially in games Posh whereby were being overrun in wide areas defensively by direct, wing oriented attacks.

Pros
Having an extra body in midfield should help Posh to control possession and progress the ball more efficiently through the lines. At times Posh have found ball progression a challenge against packed and organised midfield units however the extra man in midfield and width should help Ferguson to implement the high tempo, short passing style he prizes.

The extra centre back should in theory provide greater defensive solidity, while the shape also provides Posh with more options laterally across the pitch in both attack and defence. This should help both when breaking down sides in a low block and also when defending against direct sides who play with width/attack down the wings. It also still allows for a number 10, meaning Posh can get a creative player in a largely free role behind the front two, creating an extra vertical line of attack thus allowing for greater options between opposition defensive lines. The formation may also be key to getting the best out of Butler who thrived in a left wing-back role for Newport.
Crucially, it allows Posh to keep Maddison, Toney and Eisa in the same positions they’ve currently occupied to great effect this season.

Cons
Posh lack a natural option for the third left-sided centre back. In an ideal world Kent would play on the right, with Beevers centrally and perhaps a pacier, ball carrying centre back on the left. Blake-Tracy, Mason and Butler may all be candidates for this role but none are naturals in that position. Josh Knight, although not a natural on the left hand side, may also be considered for this role, however there’s a good chance Fergie would want to use him as one of the two central midfielders. There is also a balancing act between getting players with a good attacking output in the wing-back roles without leaving the defence overly exposed in the opposite direction.

Verdict
An interesting option with potential to revisit later in season. Unlikely to be used in the next league game with Toney suspended, and probably requires defensive reinforcements in January before it can be considered Posh’s primary option. Definitely an option against direct sides and sides who Posh are struggling to break down.

4-2-3-1
Possible First XI
Pym
Mason/Ward/Thompson        Kent           Beevers                Blake-Tracy/Butler

Reed/Boyd    Knight/Woodyard

Ward/Maddison/Eisa            Maddison/Boyd          Maddison/Dembele

Eisa/Toney

Record This Season
Posh have spent a total of 41 minutes in this formation this season across two games. The 23 minutes they spent in this formation against Doncaster did little to change the game with Posh already 2-0 down. The 18 minutes against Lincoln on the other hand were blistering. With posh scoring twice to win 2-0 and Dembele’s pace and trickery proving the key to unlocking the Imps defence.
Pros
The prospect of having Maddison, Boyd and Dembele all lining up in advanced positions behind a proven goal scorer is tantalising. With Boyd in the 10 role and Maddison and Dembele out wide it is a trio of attackers who provide creativity, skill and a goal threat while Maddison and Dembele would provide pace out wide.

Posh also have an abundance of players who could play the double pivot role so it could become more defensive (combination of Reed, Woodyard, Knight) or progressive (combination of Boyd, Reed, Knight) depending on the opposition and demands of the game.

Also transfer argument for extra man in midfield and width in terms of possession and ball transitioning 3-4-1-2 here.

Cons
First and foremost it means leaving one of League One’s joint top scorers on the bench. This is a high risk strategy and would leave Fergie open to enormous levels of criticism should it backfire. Although Toney’s suspension does provide something of a free hit to experiment with this formation against Burton.

At the back end of last season Toney demonstrated he can play in a lone striker role in this exact formation to great effect however Eisa is unproven in this role. With Eisa leading the line on his own he would have to find a way of influencing the game more frequently, whether that be by using his pace to run in behind and stretch teams to create space between defence and midfield for the three behind him or by dropping deeper to link play and release space for the wide players in behind. In remains untested whether he can fulfil this role.

Verdict
Will surely be the go-to formation in Toney’s absence against Burton, success in that game will determine whether it is used in the future.

4-3-3
Possible First XI
Pym
Mason/Ward/Thompson        Kent           Beevers                Blake-Tracy/Butler

           Knight/Woodyard/Ward/Tasdemir            Reed         Boyd/Tasdemir/Ward/Burrows

Ward/Maddison/Eisa                                             Maddison/Dembele/Boyd

Eisa/Toney

Record This Season
Untried, untested

Pros
Similar to 4-2-3-1 in terms of width, extra body in midfield allowing ball progression. One benefit of the formation is that having the extra man in central midfield as opposed to an advanced 10 should somewhat lighten the defensive work load of the two advanced wide players allowing them more time to unleash their pace and trickery in the final third more often.

It also provides many options in terms of midfield rotation. Reed would likely perform the deep lying role as a 6 or 6/8, however either side of side of him there are options as Knight can play as a box-to-box 8, Woodyard as a ball winner, or Boyd and Tasdemir as more advanced midfielders in a 8/10 hybrid (think De Bruyne and Silva at Manchester City).

Cons
Obviously dropping one of Toney and Eisa (or shifting Eisa out wide) is a drawback considering there form. It also requires Posh to attack without an orthodox 10, which may impact on their attacking output. However, having creative or forward thinking midfielders in two of the three central midfield roles should somewhat counteract this potential limitation.

Verdict
Won’t be considered, but probably should be.

Conclusion

Darren Ferguson has shown far greater in-game tactical flexibility than in previous reigns which is a huge plus and has probably enabled Posh to gather more points than they would otherwise have done. However, he needs to show greater innovation in his pre-match strategies. The midfield diamond should not be completely abandoned, but nor should it be seen as a one-size-fits-all approach that it often appears to be. Against possession based sides it is effective in both providing defensive security in central areas and providing options to exploit gaps left by the opposition. Against sides who pack central areas defensively, and/or employ a direct, wing oriented attacking approach, Ferguson may have to consider one of the other solutions discussed above. There is nothing wrong with adjusting your approach to exploit the weaknesses and negate the strengths of the opposition, especially if you can do so while still getting your best players on the pitch in their best positions as often as possible.

Friday, November 8, 2019

Why Relentless Rodgers is Perfect Antidote to Foxes Malaise


Four seasons on from their shock title win Leicester find themselves 3rd in the Premier League table after 11 games, just two  points behind a Manchester City side who are one of the greatest to ever grace these shores and eight points behind current Champions League winners Liverpool. They can currently claim to be the ‘best of the rest’ among a pack of five or six sides with realistic Champions League hopes but no chance of toppling the divisions two standout sides.

Taking the above statement in isolation one would probably assume that it has been a relatively smooth ride since their 2015/16 glory, with Leicester consolidating themselves amongst the Premier League elite.

The real story is fascinating, tragic and far more complex than that. It is a story of managerial sackings, player complacency, key player sales, reported dressing room coups and the tragic loss of a hugely likeable owner.

Since their title triumph Leicester have recorded mid table finishes of 12th, 9th and 9th. In that time three managers have lost their job. First the charismatic and hugely entertaining Claudio Ranieri bit the dust, just nine months after he had guided the then relegation favourites to the most remarkable of titles, with the champion’s just one point above the Premier League relegation zone with 13 games remaining.

Ranieri’s assistant Craig Shakespeare took up the reigns, amid whispers that he was the true tactical inspiration behind Leicester’s title win with Ranieri merely the public figurehead. After initially overseeing an upturn in fortunes, Shakespeare lasted just eight month as he was unable to improve Leicester’s performances long term and left with the side in the relegation zone after eight matches of the 2017/18 season.

Shakespeare was replaced by Claude Puel, an appointment which failed to excite either the fan base or players. Again we see a similar story. An initial upturn in results and hugely respectable 9th place finish was accompanied by player unrest, disillusionment at Puel’s perceived ‘negative’ tactics and the manager’s departure less than a year and a half into his tenure.

They say getting to the summit is hard but staying there is much harder. It is no coincidence that only three managers: Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola have ever retained the Premier League Title. All three are relentless winners, never pausing for breath in their pursuit of the next trophy.

Ranieri, Shakespeare and Puel all had their strengths but the shared one fatal trait, an inability to motivate a talented group of players who had reached the summit but had no realistic opportunity to return there.

United with a sense of purpose to make history, as the usual suspects fell by the wayside Leicester’s group of previously unheralded misfits and bargain buys found a level of performance and consistency that was unimaginable at the start of the season. This was a side who had looked relegation certainties for much of the previous season before an extraordinary late run of 22 points from their final 9 games secured a survival which appeared almost as unlikely as the title winning season itself when Leicester were sat bottom on 19 points after 29 games going into April.

Having achieved the impossible, and in the process secured their place in club folklore as well as Premier League and world football history, the players’ performances nosedived as did results. Here was a group of unmotivated and uninspired players, happy to bask in the glow of their once in a lifetime achievement. Only when an unthinkable relegation threatened did the side achieve anything resembling their 2015/16 performance levels the following season.

A sense of malaise had swept the club, bumper contracts and endless levels of goodwill had made the players who wanted to stay, if not the manager, untouchable. Standards slipped and rather than being the catalyst which propelled Leicester into the stratosphere of the elite, the title win became a justification for mid table mediocrity. Leicester had achieved all they could, what was the point in pushing on if things would never get that good again?

This was a side which needed a spark to ignite it, to inspire to demand the excellence that shook the Premier League elite to its core. In February 2019 that catalyst for improvement arrived in the form of Brendan Rodgers.

Rodgers is a man who has a relentless obsession with excellence. He has an unlimited drive to seek that he ensures both himself, and his sides, are the best they can possibly be. So fixated with personal development is he that he learned both Spanish and Italian to enhance his job prospects. He is also the man which helped set the standards and philosophy that allowed a Swansea side to punch well above its weight for years after he had left.  

Rodgers’ relentless drive for excellence is simultaneously his greatest strength and also the trait which cost him potentially his career defining moment.

With Liverpool within touching distance of Manchester City in the race to be crowned 2013/14 Premier League Champions Rodgers’ side squandered a 3-0 lead against Crystal Palace to draw 3-3. His tunnel vision and fixation with chasing down city’s goal difference meant both he and his side lost sight of the bigger picture. The most important thing in that game was three points and to maintain pressure on Manchester City.

At 3-0 it was perfectly logical to pile forward, chase more goals and close the goal difference gap. But at 3-1 and especially 3-2, warning bells should have been ringing that the goal difference game was up and it was time to setup shop. In the heat of battle Rodgers’ relentless obsession with the perfect result did not let him settle for good enough and live to fight another day.

It is easy to lose sight of the big picture when one becomes fixated on smaller details. It is the same psychological phenomenon that has caused pilots to crash planes when fixated on wheel warning lights and are thus unaware that their fuel is quickly running dangerously low. Rodgers’s error was not on the same magnitude as this, but the same principles apply and when next in heat of battle (he was largely untested winning back-to-back titles at Celtic) it will be interesting to see if Rodgers has learnt from his mistake.

But what proved his undoing in that title run-in is now the exact same trait which has allowed him to revitalise his current side who had sleep walked into mediocrity following their greatest of triumphs.
At Leicester Rodgers inherited a talented, but under-performing squad. A group who had excelled when united behind a historic common goal, but had since let standards slip in the relatively mundane seasons which followed. It was a side unmotivated by the tiny carrot of a seventh placed finished, and which would only burst into life when whacked by the enormous stick in the guise potential relegation.

It is a side which needed to be challenged, needed a manager which unrelentingly high expectations to raise the ceiling of what could be achieved, to accept nothing less than the highest of standards in everything they do.

This is exactly what Rodgers has already achieved in his short time at Leicester. He forfeited the chance of a treble-treble with Celtic to take over a side where he believes a top four finish should be regarded as a realistic goal. By raising standards and expectations of what is achievable he has awoken this Leicester side from their malaise and revitalised the club. He is a perfectionist and the players have bought into his all-encompassing desire for improvement.

We have seen this relentless nature manifest itself on the pitch in the past 14 days. Teams do not typically win 9-0. Often when in the process of handing out a thrashing the winning side is inclined to sit off, relax, and conserve one’s energies for the challenges ahead. This is not something that Rodgers will allow this Leicester side to do. And the fact that they overcame a tricky trip to Palace in the following game speaks volumes for the culture Rodgers is fostering and the fact that players were not allowed to rest on their laurels following a record breaking win.

It takes an ambitious and brave manager to raise the bar of expectations. When setting expectations high it is often the manager who pays the price should they not be met. Fans and owners also tend to have short memories. And many managers have discovered that even if you were the one to initiate the climb this is not enough to save you should you then begin to fall.

Leicester may not qualify for the Champions League this season, they may not even finish in the top six. But one thing is for sure. Rodgers will accept nothing less than the pursuit of excellence from his players. If they fall short of his targets it will not be because they were allowed standards to slip. And the players will not be able to chuck a manager with the strength of character of Rodgers under the same bus that Ranieri found himself. If Rodgers and this Leicester side fail, they will fail while striving to be the best they can be.

Monday, October 14, 2019

Shaky at Centre Back, Confusion at Full Back, Stale in the Centre & The Harry Kane Dilemma. Issues Facing Southgate ahead of tonight's Game in Bulgaria


England travel to the Vasil Levski National Stadium tonight with a raft of unaswered questions hanging over them after an appalling performance in their last game against the Czech Republic.
Friday night represented England and Southgate’s toughest examination in what is an incredibly kind qualifying group. And it is an examination they failed horribly.

Critics of this England side have long been arguing that a potent attack and favourable fixture list have been papering over the cracks present in this England side. However, it would have been impossible to envisage just how long the list of negatives from the performance would be in the build up to kickoff.

Southgate has faced a lot of criticism, much of it justified, for his team selection and decision to experiment in a game whioch could have guaranteed progression to the Euro’s. This was his best, and arguably chance to test his first choice 11 in a competitive fixture agianst challenging opposition before England kickoff their Euro 2020 campaign at Wembley next year and he blew it.

It was a game for fine tuning not mass experimentation. During the World Cup England had found a blueprint and system that carried them all the way to the semi finals. This had since been refined, converting from a wingback system to 4-3-3 during the Nations League with wins over Spain and Croatia in competitive fixtures clearly indicating that there was something working which could be built upon.

The time between the World Cup ending and Euro 2020 starting should have been regarded as a time to hone England’s approach. Indeed, Friday should have been all about refining the current system in the face of concerns from the Kosovo game. It was not a time to embark on trying to implement a third new formation in the past 15 months.

Tactical issues were not limited to the choice of formation. In attack England are starting to look painfully one dimensional. They seem to have one move, which is repeated over and over. Kane drops deep, picks up possession, then looks to play either Sterling or Sancho in behind. It worked for the penalty but rarely after that. Once the Czech Republic had found a method to counter this approach there was a real lack of imagination and variation from England in attack.

Whilst on the topic of Kane his standing and position within the national side is becoming slightly problematic.

Firstly let’s get one thing clear, Harry Kane is a world class player. Part of what makes him so great is his wide skillset. He has the ability to be both a creator and out and out number ‘9’. Sadly, as his stature at both club and country has risen to near untouchable status, he appears to want to focus almost exclusively on the former.

Kane sees himself as a hybrid between a number ‘9’ and ‘10.’ However, it is clear that he favours playing a deeper role, even though it was his exploits as a goalscoring centre forward that first brought him international acclaim. At times, like on Friday night, when plan ‘A’ is not working England need Kane to revert back to the number 9 we saw between 2014 and 2018. They need variation from Kane, with him running both at, and in behind, defenders. Sadly, this appears to be something he is currently unwilling to do and is quickly becoming a facet of his game confined to the past.

Then there is the fullback situation. In Trent Alexander-Arnold England have arguably the best right back in Europe and without doubt the most creative. At left back, in Ben Chilwell, England have a young, developing player who is bang in form at a club flying high in the Premier League.

The decision therefore to pick Trippier and Rose in the fullback positions was puzzling before kickoff and looks an even worse call in the aftermath. This was a chance to see how two players, who should surely be considered England’s first choice fullbacks, would fair against decent, if unspectacular opposition. Now though, it is an opportunity which has passed Southgate by.

Then there is the problem at centre back. Harry Maguire’s place in the side is currently beyond doubt, however the selection of Michael Keane alongside him was surely a mistake. England are missing their most naturally gifted defender in John Stones through injury, and while Joe Gomez has not been a regular starter for his side, he would surely have been the better option for this game.

Keane has never looked comfortable in an England shirt and at club level is struggling in an underperforming Everton side. Gomez on the other hand is only being kept out of the Liverpool side by arguably the best central defensive partnership in world football. He is also blessed with pace which is something that Maguire is clearly lacking. Given England’s struggles in defence Soutgate would be wise to give Gomez a run out in the side this evening.

Operating just in front of the defence the double pivot axis of Jordan Henderson and Declan Rice was an abject failure. Southgate suggested that this change was to provide England with extra defensive stability in response to the three goals conceded against Kosovo.

Sadly neither player could do anything to stem the flow of Czech attacks, with Rice appearing to be constantly overrun in the first half in particular. Not only that but the approach also limited England’s pressing threat, something that has been so important to their relative success in the past 18 months or so.

Furthermore, the combination stunted England’s ball progression in possession. Both players played exclusively on the same line. Neither appeared willing or able to drop in between the centre backs to allow the fullbacks to push high, nor did they look to receive the ball beyond the Czech Repubic’s first line of defence.

The end result was a tedius display of passing without purpose inside the England half. Rice and Henderson barely played a forward pass between them in the first half and it was as if we had been transported back in time to the timid England of the Sven Goran-Eriksson era rather than watching this supposedly bold and adventurous side Southgate has been working to create.

Southgate knows that every decision he makes tonight will be intensely scrutinised by media and fans alike. Goodwill still remains from England’s enthralling World Cup campain, however any more peformances like Friday night and this will quickly evaporate. Even a positive performance and result is unlikely to be enough to convert the doubters, and may even add fuel to the fire of the argument that the boss got it horribly wrong for England’s toughest test in this group. Manager and players alike know that anything less than a win tonight, while not fatal to their chances of winning, will be viewed as unforgivable.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

How Do you Solve a Problem Like Louis Reed's Suspension?


Reed’s sending off and subsequent suspension for the trip to Gillingham presents Fergie with a major tactical dilemma. He has favoured consistency of selection and starting formation for the last 10 matches, with this approach being rewarded with an excellent run of form firing Posh up to 3rd in the table. However, with no natural replacement for Reed in his favoured diamond formation, it will be interesting to see how Ferguson decides to shuffle the pack on Saturday. Below it’s an assessment of some of his options, including how likely each is to happen.

Option 1: Straight swap, other ten players remain the same, replacing player comes in at base of the diamond.

There are probably two options Fergie could take should he strive to maintain consistency of selection and limit disruption to his side.

Kyle Barker at the base of midfield

This would be the bold, adventurous and somewhat unlikely solution. Kyle Barker is just 18 years old but was exceptional in his first start against Arsenal U21s in the Leasing.com trophy. In his lone performance of the season he demonstrated excellent tactical discipline as he marshalled the Posh midfield also showing his extreme comfort on the ball and the bravery to play forward passes through the lines as the game wore on. He provides a slightly different option to Reed, as he favours keeping play ticking over through a succession of short passes as opposed to looking for the long, defence splitting pass. It would however be a huge gamble for Ferguson to throw him in for his first league appearance in a potentially tough and feisty away fixture to Gillingham.

Likeliness Rating: Exciting but unlikely. 3/10

Woodyard at base of midfield

The former skipper appeared to be an outcast in this new look Ferguson side when he was transfer listed after disappointing in the opening two games of the season. He has come back into contention in recent games, coming on as a sub with the intention of solidifying the midfield as Posh looked to see out wins. An honest, hard-working and combative player however his selection in this role would surely be a step backwards.

Last season demonstrated that Posh get bogged down in their own half too often with Woodyard at the base of midfield, hamstrung by his limited vision, passing and technical ability. If he is to have a place in this Posh side then it should remain as a late sub to see out games. It is possible Fergie will opt for his experience and tough tackling skillset against a direct Gillingham side. However, the fact Ferguson chose Barker to play at the base of the diamond instead of Woodyard against Arsenal U21s suggests he may have seen enough in the past to put him off returning to this option.

Likeliness Rating: An unimaginative option but possible. 5/10

Update 18/10/19

Niall Mason at base of midfield

When first reviewing the solutions I considered Mason playing on the right of midfield with Knight at the base and Nathan Thompson coming in at right back. What I failed to consider was the prospect of Mason playing at the base of midfield himself. This option has been mooted by Fergie throughout the week and now looks perhaps the most likely solution. The key benefit over playing Mason on the right of midfield is that avoids disrupting Knight's position in the side. Moreover Mason has both the the defensive attributes, comfort on the ball and passing ability to fulfil many of the same tasks as Louis Reed. Perhaps the only question mark is whether Mason has sufficient understanding of a tactically demanding role.

Likeliness Rating: Hinted at by Fergie and the one I'd put money on now. 7/10


Option 2: Drop Knight to base of diamond, bring in a replacement on right of midfield

Knight is a player who clearly has the ability on the ball and defensive discipline to fulfil the role at the base of the diamond, however given his importance to the balance of the side on the right of midfield Posh would have to select a player who can replace his energy and work rate in that position.

Joe Ward on right of midfield

Perhaps the most likely option. Was Ferguson’s first choice to step in when Boyd was injured and although at times he looked uncomfortable playing on the left he still managed to deliver two assists in that role. Would be far more comfortable playing on his natural side and was Posh’s Mr Consistent last season. Probably the player with the work rate and skillset to most closely replicate Knight's function in the side but with arguably brings greater attacking threat/ouput in final third.

Likeliness Rating: Wouldn’t let anyone down. 7/10

Niall Mason on right of midfield, Nathan Thompson at right back

A left field option but one which would make a lot of sense. Niall Mason has both defensive qualities and ability on the ball to replace Knight on the right of midfield, while Fergie will surely be keen to get minutes into Nathan Thompson who will not accept sitting on the bench for the rest of the season. Fergie has previous moved fullbacks into midfield with Russell Martin and clearly sees Mason as versatile player having employed him at left both against and for Doncaster. May not be as unlikely an option as it first seems.

Likeliness Rating: A creative solution and not totally implausible. 5/10

Woodyard on right of midfield

He played there against Arsenal U21s and did OK without pulling up any trees. Would ensure balance defensively and would bring similar work rate and energy to the role. It was noticeable in the Leasing.com game however how little Woodyard offers going forward and he lacks Knight’s dynamism on the ball. Would however be a better option than employing Woodyard in the ‘6’ role if Fergie did want to introduce his battling qualities and leadership to the side.

Likeliness Rating: More likely than him playing at the base of midfield. 6/10

Harrison Burrows on right of midfield

Another young Posh midfielder full of potential who would be chomping at the bit to be involved. An excellent cameo at MK Dons propelled him into the consciousness of many Posh fans, however he did little to enhance his case in trophy games against Northampton and Arsenal U21s. Would be a surprise to see him trusted from the start of this game but may be one to feature from the bench.

Likeliness Rating: Needed to do more in starts in Leasing.com Trophy 3/10


Option 3: Switch formation to 4-2-3-1 which saw Posh score twice against Lincoln, with Dembele coming in on the left wing

A idea floated by some sections of the Posh fan base following Dembele’s impact off the bench yesterday. Again there are probably two ways this could be implemented.

Dembele only personnel change, Eisa drops into 10 role with Maddison on right and Knight/Boyd in deep midfield roles

This is essentially the same setup as Posh tried to implement at the start of the season and resulted in them losing the opening two games. Knight at the base of midfield instead of Woodyard would be an improvement while Boyd would likely perform better in the deep role were he also given license to push on in possession. The key flaw is that Eisa was not suited to the role as second striker and was virtually non-existent in Posh’s opening two games. He has excelled as an out and out striker and this means it is pretty much a non-starter to think Posh would switch him back to his previous role.

Likeliness Rating: Didn’t work before and no reason to think Fergie will revisit this system. 2/10

Eisa drops to the bench, Boyd plays as ‘10’ with Knight and either Barker or Woodyard playing in deep lying midfield roles

This one may have legs in the future, especially when Reed returns to the starting 11. Given the positive impact this switch had on Saturday, and the mouth-watering prospect of having Boyd, Maddison and Dembele all playing behind Toney there is a good chance that this set up will be revisited at times throughout the season. If either Toney or Eisa were to suffer an injury this would likely be Posh’s go to formula.

 There are two key reasons why this approach won’t be used on Saturday. The first is that Fergie may struggle to find one player he trusts at ‘6’, let alone two, in Reed's absence. The second, and arguably more important reason, is that this would involve dropping Mo Eisa to the bench. Every time Eisa fails to score his critics start throwing accusations of him not being consistent enough. However, he has 9 league goals to his name already this season and has scored in 7 of the 10 games since Posh switched to the diamond. Dropping him on this form would be unthinkable.

Likeliness Rating: Won’t happen. 1/10

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Youth Watch v Arsenal U21s


A Peterborough United side full of fringe players and youth prospects turned a 40 minutes schooling at the hands of a young Arsenal side into a 1-0 win with a strong second half performance. Many of the Posh youngsters acquitted themselves well against their more illustrious counterparts. Below is a summary of how the younger players in the side got on:

Kyle Barker

Game in numbers:
6 Interceptions
2 Tackles
1 Dribble
1 Dribbled Past
1 Dispossessed

It was an excellent performance from the young midfielder, tasked with playing the pivot role on his first competitive start. Showed impressive tactical discipline as he marshalled the centre of the park and held the midfield together well. Shifted the ball side to side cleanly in the first half and grew in confidence in the second as he started playing lateral balls forward to break the Arsenal defensive lines. Was caught out on a couple of occasions when he wanted slightly too much time on the ball but one would imagine that this will become an infrequent occurrence as he adapts to life in the first team. Could well have done enough to now be considered Reed’s natural understudy as no other player in the first team appears to have the requisite skillset to play that role (although Fergie may fancy trying Boyd in the role should Reed be unavailable). Barker offered a different playing style from deep as he played short, precise and quick passes to keep the ball flowing, as opposed to the long, defence splitting passes favoured by Reed or Maddison when dropping deep. It made quite a pleasant change to have this variation in play. If there was a weakness on show it was that he appeared a yard or two short on pace when tracking players running beyond him.

Rating: 8/10


Serhat Tasdemir

Game in numbers:
5 Shots
2 Shots on Target
3 Key Passes
2 Dribbles
1 Tackle
1 Dispossessed

Followed up a strong cameo on Saturday with another good performance last night. Posh struggled to get him on the ball in the first half as they were starved of possession however he still showed flashes of quality, epitomised when he rolled the his marker, burst forward and released a disappointingly weak shot at goal. Carried far more of an influence on the game in the second half. He showed intelligence to take up good spaces in between the Arsenal midfield and defensive lines and was always an option for the Posh centre backs and Barker. Tasdemir rarely seems to waste possession but still looks to play incisive passes when possible. It’s also a real challenge to try and knock him off the ball as he demonstrates size and strength expected of one far beyond his years. The biggest criticism would be that he finished weakly on a number of occasions and this appears to be an area of his game which must improve, especially if Posh’s dependence on their front 3 for goals continues.

Rating: 8/10


Sam Cartwright

Game in numbers:
2 Tackles
1 Interception
2 Dribbled Past

Another who did not look out of place on debut. Generally defended OK barring a couple of slightly shaky moments and one potential penalty shout against him. One would suspect that League One strikers would provide a different and all together tougher test than he faced last night however. It was in possession where he really excelled. Was always looking to receive the ball of his keeper and fellow defenders, showing an understanding of when to step up and when to drop deep. Passed cleanly, and demonstrated an awareness of when to play safe and when to play forwards, especially as options opened up in front of him in the second half to allow him to do the latter. Definitely a defender of promise, and although I would have doubts about whether he would be ready for the step up to League One just yet, the loan move to Kettering should provide him with valuable first team experience and the opportunity to kick on.

Rating: 7/10

Idris Kanu

Game in numbers:
3 Shots
1 Shot on Target
1 Tackle
1 Dispossessed

Barely had a kick for 40 minutes of the first half before he started to drop deep in search of possession. Carried more of a threat second half but to nowhere near the extent of his last start against Northampton. Clearly possesses good strength and pace, can link play and is keen to take players on in an attempt to make things happen. His decision making and end product needs to improve however as seems to struggle to read when it is best to pass/dribble/shoot. Looks an exciting prospect and much improved on the player we saw glimpses of last season.

Rating: 6/10


Harrison Burrows

Game in numbers:
3 Shots
0 Shots on Target
1 Key Pass
4 Interceptions
3 Tackles
1 Dispossessed

A frustrating night for a player who showed flashes of real quality in a cameo at MK Dons but has struggled to shine on his two starts in this competition. He was better defensively in this match than against Northampton but almost anonymous in possession during the first half. Posh would have hoped for a lot more from him going forwards as they knew they would lack creativity on the other side of midfield with Woodyard in that role. Showed more output on the ball second half with a couple of drives forward, one pass laying on a chance for a teammate and three shots. He is a player who needs to show more willingness/improvement to pick up the ball deep and transfer it forwards as he currently only looks at his most comfortable when playing in the opposition third. Fergie would probably have been hoping to see more from him in this match as Posh look short of options on the left hand side of midfield. It is however easy to forget that he is just 17 years of age and there appears to be real talent there if nurtured correctly.

Rating: 6/10

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Individual Player Ratings and Report Posh vs AFC Wimbledon


Christy Pym

Game in numbers:
1 Error leading to goal
1 Save
1 Catch from cross
3 Clearances
41% Pass success rate

Saturday was probably Pym’s worst performance of the season and definitely his least convincing display since opening day against Fleetwood. His howler cannot be excused even if the ball did bounce and he may have been distracted by Beevers stretching a leg to block. That goal at the start of the second half changed the flow of the game and made the game far trickier than it overwise should have been. His highlight was probably one excellent claim from a dangerous whipped cross under his bar in the second half. His kicking over short and long distances was good in the first half, but he clearly struggled when kicking into the wind second half posting his third worst pass accuracy of the season and sending too many kicks direct into touch.

Rating: 4.5/10

Niall Mason

Game in numbers:
6 Tackles
4 Clearances
1 Dribbled past
2 Key passes

Easily Posh’s best defender as he put in his joint best display in a Posh shirt thus far (level with game against Rochdale). Has been suspect in previous matches defending 1v1 but much improved body position and success rate in this game is reflected in his season high 6 tackles and only being beaten once. His much improved defensive performance was vital as Wimbledon targeted their attacks down the Posh right. His game defining moment came when he saved Posh with a crucial tackle against Appiah with the game poised at 2-1 just before Posh broke away to score the third. Good attacking output as his side had most success attacking down their right and got forward especially well in the first half.

Rating: 8/10

Frankie Kent

Game in numbers:
4 Tackles 
3/5 Aerial duels won
87% Pass success rate
1 Clearance 
1 Block 
1 Interception

Kent had a couple of shaky moments in the second half but generally passed efficiently and battled well. Coped better than expected against the strength and height of Pigott. Has excelled in the past couple of games when defending 1v1 which is reflected in his 100% tackle success rate.

Rating: 6.5/10

Mark Beevers

Game in numbers:
6/6 Aerial duels won
8 Clearances
2 Blocks
1 Interception

Dominant in the air as always but never looks as assured when defending the ball on deck. He is improving in possession as he adapts to the demands of his new club which are at odds with what was expected of him at Bolton. That being stand, he is still sometimes guilty of taking too many touches and not moving the ball quickly enough and was almost caught out in possession in a dangerous area on Saturday. A decent performance but not as commanding as was hoped when he was signed and yet to do anything which suggests he is an upgrade on Tafazolli. 

Rating: 6.5/10

Frazer Blake-Tracy

Game in numbers:
1 Tackle
1 Block
3 Fouls
1 Time dispossessed
3 Unsuccessful touches (possession lost)
68% Pass success rate

Great to have him back from injury but unfortunately Posh’s surprise package put in his least convincing display in a Posh shirt. Relatively untroubled defensively as Wimbledon targeted the opposite side but failed to display any of the attacking influence seen in previous matches. Gave the ball away too frequently including in the build up to the first Dons goal and virtually no impact in the attacking third. 

Rating: 5/10

Louis Reed

Game in numbers:
Pass success rate 68%
31 Total Passes
2 Times dispossessed
6 Tackles 
1  Interception
1 Clearances

A battling performance out of possession but failed to assert early season influence on Posh’s build up play. Decision making of when to play long and short was not the best and this is reflected in his season low stats of 68% pass success rate, 31 total passes and 2 successful long passes. Can also sometimes slow moves down by taking too many touches and did not demonstrate the forward drive seen in games against MK Dons and Southend. That being said his effort and importance out of possession at the base of the Posh midfield cannot be overlooked. Has, can and will play much better than this.

Rating: 6.5/10

Josh Knight

Game in numbers:
1 Assist
2 Key Passes
11 Aerial duels won
1 Interception
1 Clearance

Put in another high quality performance full of energy and commitment which have become his trademark. Is vital to the balance of the Posh midfield and excellent attacking output with 1 assist and 2 key passes. His assist for the Posh third goal was sublime as he married a storming forward run with an inch perfect pass. The decision to play him on the right of the Posh midfield is looking inspired.

Rating: 8/10

George Boyd

Game in numbers:
1 Assist
1 Dispossession leading to goal 
5 Shots
4 Tackles

Posh really missed Boyd in the last two games and his importance to the side was reinforced in this game. Won the ball back high up the pitch in the build up to the first goal and excellent pass set Eisa away on the counter for the second. Always works hard out of possession and essential to Posh’s ability to link defence with attack. 

Rating: 8/10

Marcus Maddison

Game in numbers:
1 Goal
8 Shots
4 Key passes
2 Successful crosses
3 Time dispossessed
50% Pass success rate

Another quality performance from Posh’s enigmatic attacking midfielder. Demonstrated his game changing qualities as his right footed thunderbolt broke the deadlock for Posh. Noticeably dropped deep more frequently than in the game against Doncaster in an attempt to help link play and hit a number of sumptuous long passes to Toney. It was not all good from the Posh talisman however. He always looked for the Hollywood pass, sometimes to the detriment of his side when a simple pass to retain possession would be more effective. Wasted a number of clear cut chances in the second half, much to the anger of his manager, and this led directly to him being subbed late on.

Rating: 8/10

Mo Eisa

Game in numbers:
2 Goals
1 Assist
6 Shots
5 Successful dribbles
3 Key passes

Spent less time on the ball than any other player on the pitch (1.7% total possession share) but did more with less than anyone else. Is absolutely lethal in the opposition area and unlucky not to come away with a hattrick as he was denied a third goal by a fine diving save. Demonstrated excellent footwork to wriggle past two defenders for his first goal and a clinical finish for the second. He is now joint top of the League One goalscoring charts with 8 goals alongside teammate Ivan Toney.

Rating: 9/10

Ivan Toney

Game in numbers:
4 Shots
4 Clearances 
1 Interception

Toney, alongside Maddison, is fast becoming the player Posh can least afford to lose. The vast majority of Posh attacks seem to revolve around him as Reed and Maddison regularly look for Toney as an outball. No goal but with excellent chest control, strong in the air and good with ball at feet his link up play was vital in this Posh win and his impact but in defence and attack cannot be overstated. Had a big part to play in both the second goal when he started the Posh counter and third goal as he got a crucial interception to turn the ball over in the Wimbledon half. Only downside was that he appeared to switch off in the build up to the second Wimbledon goal and probably should have been the one to track Wordsworth as he found himself in acres of space to score. Outstanding nonetheless.

Rating: 9/10

Serhat Tasdemir

Game in numbers:
16 Minutes played 
3 Key passes
2 Successful dribbles
100% Pass success rate

His impact on proceedings in such a short space of time was remarkable. Laid on chances for his teammates with three excellent passes and looked tremendous carrying the ball forward. Demonstrated impressive strength for someone so young and looks a more than capable understudy to Maddison. Need more evidence to see if he has the defensive skills and work rate to play on either side of the Posh diamond and he may struggle for regular game time if he is unable to convince Fergie that he possesses these qualities. Posh fans should be excited to see him play against Arsenal U21s Tuesday night as looks a real prospect.

Rating: 8/10

Alex Woodyard

Game in numbers:
16 Minutes played
1 Interception
1 Clearance

Was a surprise to see the former skipper in the matchday squad but didn’t let anyone down when he came on. Was brought on to help shore up the Posh midfield and did just that. Will be interesting to see if this was just a fleeting cameo or the start of an unlikely renaissance as he seems to lack many of the attributes Fergie would demand from a player in his midfield.

Rating: 6/10